8 May 2024
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Italy ramps up anti-migration efforts ahead of EU elections as Trabelsi participates in migration meeting in Rome and Meloni visits Dabaiba in Tripoli
Incident: The Italian government is ramping up its anti-migration engagement with Libya in the run up to the European elections next month. On 2 May, Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of Interior (MoI) Emad Trabelsi led a delegation from Libya to an International Coordination Meeting on Border Control and Illegal Migration in Rome involving Italy, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria, hosted by Italy's MoI Matteo Piantedosi. Algerian MoI Brahim Merad and Tunisian MoI Kamel al-Fiqi were also present with their delegations.
Piantedosi stated that to reduce the flow of illegal migrants, it is necessary to move from bilateral cooperation to a strategic regional approach. He said that the strategic priority must be to strengthen the stability of land borders, starting with the Sahel. Trabelsi emphasized that to combat illegal migration, it is necessary to take not only the interests of the destinations into account, but also those of the countries of origin and the transit countries.
On 7 May, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Tripoli to meet with Prime Minister Abdul Hameed Dabaiba. They discussed issues of mutual cooperation including combatting illegal migration, energy and the political process. Three Memorandums of Understanding were also signed in the fields of health, higher education and scientific research, and sports and youth. They also agreed to hold the Italian Libyan Economic Forum at the end of October in Tripoli to support the private sector of the two countries. Meloni is expected to meet with Menfi later on 7 May and she is also expected to visit Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi after her Tripoli visit.
Comment: This renewed anti-migration push by Italy comes ahead of EU elections in early June in which migration is expected to be a major issue. Meloni’s hard-right government was elected in September 2022 and she has focused on striking deals with both Dabaiba and Haftar since then in an attempt to curb the numbers of migrants reaching Italy from North Africa. She launched the Mattei plan in late 2023, an initiative to boost energy cooperation development with Africa and support development on the continent in the coming years as a way to reduce migrant flows to Europe, with an initial funding of 5.5 billion EUR.
Dabaiba and Meloni last met in Rome in January 2024. In June 2023, Dabaiba and Meloni signed a wide ranging memorandum of understanding covering oil and gas and ‘immigration and border protection’, while in January 2023 Meloni oversaw the signing of the 8 billion USD Eni deal in Tripoli. Meloni has also visited Tunisian President Saeed several times in the last few months.
According to Frontex, the number of people reaching Europe via the Central Mediterranean route in the first quarter of 2024 was down 59% compared to the same period in 2023, with around 11,400 people reaching the EU in that period. According to IOM, 16,137 migrants have arrived in Italy in 2024 so far (as of end of April). The majority of migrants arriving in Italy departed from Libya or Tunisia.
Significance: Containing illegal migration via the Central Mediterranean Route is still of utmost importance for Italy and the European Union as a whole. In the light of the upcoming EU elections in June, this topic is of even more significance. Meloni likely hopes to renew anti-migration deals with both Dabaiba and Haftar in order to highlight her ‘tough on migration’ credentials to the Italian electorate, as well as to reduce the numbers of people reaching Italy in the coming weeks. On his part, Dabaiba will hope to use Meloni’s visit and her need to control migration as a way to strengthen his position as PM. However, Dabaiba does not directly control the Libyan Coast Guard or other armed groups involved with intercepting migrants – these groups are also the ones running the people smuggling rings.
As a result, it is unclear what sort of deal will be brokered and to what extent the Libyans will be willing or able to prevent migrants from setting sail from Libyan shores. Although migrant arrivals to Italy have been lower this year compared to last year, this is largely due to bad weather and a spike in numbers is likely in the short term as the weather improves, especially given the unrest in the Sahel region. As such, there is likely to be an increased focus on the issue of migration within Libya, as well as engagement with regional actors in North Africa and the Sahel on this topic.
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