8 January 2025: Angry anti-GNU protests across cities in western Libya
This week we look at anti-Dabaiba protests in western Libya over a 2023 Israeli meeting, as well as a new anti-smuggling operation by the GNU in Zawiyya and rumblings of protest in the oil sector.
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Angry anti-GNU protests across cities in western Libya after Mangoush interview claiming Dabaiba knew about the 2023 meeting with Israeli FM
Incident: On 6 January, the Athir platform, which is affiliated with the digital sector of the Al Jazeera Network, published an interview with the former Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of Foreign Affairs Najla al-Mangoush in which she discussed the details of her meeting with her Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen in August 2023 and the role of GNU PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba in the meeting.
Al-Mangoush denied that the motive for the meeting she held with Eli Cohen in Italy was to pave the way for Libya’s normalization with Israel. She confirmed explicitly that the meeting she held with Cohen was coordinated and arranged by PM Dabaiba, and that she met her Israeli counterpart with an official assignment and an agenda that was given to her. This included discussing sensitive strategic issues of concern to Libya, including the stakes related to resources in the Mediterranean basin, specifically gas and maritime borders. Al-Mangoush stressed that at the beginning of the meeting with Cohen, she criticized the extremist policies of the Israeli government and defended the rights of the Palestinians.
She explained that her departure from Tripoli (in the wake of anger and protests over the meeting) was at the request and arrangement of the official authorities in Tripoli and that she was prevented from making any statement that would reveal the truth of what happened. She said she had left on the basis that she would return after a few days, but her absence has lasted for over a year. She said that she is ready for any investigation that reveals the truth about the ‘earthquake’ meeting. Mangoush also noted that she is technically still the GNU Minister of Foreign Affairs, with her successor al-Taher al-Baour only the acting MFA.
On the evening of 6 January, there were protests in several cities in western Libya over Mangoush’s claims that the GNU and PM Dabaiba intended to normalise relations with Israel.
Protests took place in Tripoli, Misrata, Sabratha, Zawiyya and Bani Walid, among others. Protestors chanted anti-GNU/ anti-Dabaiba slogans including ‘down with the regime’, blocked roads and burned tires. In Tripoli, there were protests outside the residences of Dabaiba.
Comment: The interview was conducted by Algerian presenter Khadija Ben Qana and had been due to be published on 5 January, but was postponed by one day. It is unclear when the interview was recorded. It was reported that the Minister of State for Political Affairs, Walid al-Lafi, has requested that inquiries about the reasons for hosting al-Mangoush at this particular time be submitted to Al-Jazeera and the Qatari government through the Qatari ambassador.
The al-Mangoush-Cohen meeting took place in Rome in mid-August 2023 and after Cohen made public statements about the meeting on 27 August, there were protests across western Libya calling for Dabaiba’s removal, with roads blocked and tires burnt. Some of Dabaiba’s main opponents in Misrata and Zintan made shows of force and called for his removal, but the situation ultimately de-escalated after Dabaiba denied any knowledge of the meeting and effectively threw al-Mangoush under the bus. Dabaiba suspended her and said an investigation would be carried out. She was then forced to leave the country.
On 2 September 2023, the Attorney General announced the formation of a committee to analyse the details of the meeting between Mangoush and Cohen and who participated, whether laws were broken, and how much damage was inflicted on the Libyan state as a result of the incident. However, it is unclear if this ever took place as the results have never been published
In our analysis at the time, L-A noted that it was unlikely that al-Mangoush would have held this meeting with Cohen without the explicit knowledge of Dabaiba – something which she has now confirmed. Whether or not the focus of discussions was on normalisation or purely on more strategic issues is less clear.
Significance: Unsurprisingly, al-Mangoush’s interview has triggered a fresh swirl of rumours, conspiracies and anger over the GNU’s contact with Israel and PM Dabaiba’s role in it. This puts Dabaiba in a precarious position, at least temporarily, with anger over engagement with Israel more visceral now than in summer 2023 given the Gaza and Lebanon wars. It is likely that this interview was published now, on the cusp of UN-led and Libyan-led efforts to revive the political dialogue and agree a new government, as a way to weaken Dabaiba’s position and make him easier to remove. However, it is not clear who is behind this.
While Libyan relations with Israel is a very sensitive topic which provokes great anger among many Libyans, in this case (as it was in summer 2023) the Israel issue primarily acts as a vehicle through which Libyans who oppose Dabaiba or are frustrated at the situation in Libya more broadly, can channel their anger. Such protests alone are unlikely to weaken Dabaiba enough to see him removed in the short term. However, if they combine with other efforts to undermine Dabaiba and his allies, and/or with key armed groups in Tripoli shifting their support away from Dabaiba, then they could act as a catalyst for greater instability in the coming days and weeks. UN-led efforts and HoR/HSC efforts to move ahead with political initiatives are likely to ramp up in the immediate term, likely creating greater instability as well as potential for change.
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West Coast Military District launches large scale anti-smuggling operations in Zawiyya with drone support
Incident: On 3 January early in the night, the Libyan Army’s West Coast Military District announced the beginning of a large military operation in Zawiyya and its neighbouring districts under the directive of PM and Minister of Defence Abdul Hameed Dabaiba. The aim of the operation is the ‘eradication of the sources of chaos and organized crime’ and to impose security, establish stability and target drug and fuel smuggling dens. The West Coast Military District called on the residents of Zawiyya and surrounding areas to report and stay away from suspicious places and dens as these will become the targets of military operations.
NOC board meeting looks ahead to 2025 as Zallaf brings Shadar field online; Protestors in Oil Crescent threaten closures
Incident: This week, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has looked ahead to plans for 2025, with production remaining high and new projects coming online. On 1 January, the Board of Directors of the NOC held its first annual meeting in the presence of Chairman Farhat Bin Qadara. In its final statement, the NOC praised the efforts of all the workers in the hydrocarbons sector, stressing that production has reached 1,417,382 bpd in 2024, ‘despite the scarcity of funding and the lack of the necessary budgets for this, and in exceptional circumstances that witnessed the declaration of force majeure more than once, as a result of which production stopped’.
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West Coast Military District launches large scale anti-smuggling operations in Zawiyya with drone support
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