5 June 2024: Russian Deputy MoD Yevkurov visits Benghazi again as LNA-Russia ties deepen
This week we look at Russian Deputy MoD Yevkurov's visit to Benghazi, a brewing economic crisis in eastern Libya, and confusion in the oil sector.
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Russian Deputy MoD Yevkurov visits Benghazi again as LNA-Russia ties deepen
Incident: On 31 May, Russian Deputy Minister of Defence (MoD) Yunus-bek Yevkurov and his delegation arrived in Benghazi for a working visit. He was received at Benina Airport by the Government of National Stability (GNS) MoD Ahmed Houma, the Director of the Office of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander-in-Chief Khairy al-Tamimi, Chief of Staff of the LNA Security Units Khaled Haftar, and GNS Ministry of Interior (MoI) Undersecretary Faraj Qaim.
The main topics discussed were the military cooperation between Russia and the LNA, the regional political situation and, above all, the state of affairs surrounding the Wagner successor, the Africa Corps.
On 1 June, LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar met with Yevkurov at his HQ in al-Rajma, discussing the LNA's future cooperation with Russia, including an expansion of training support and the LNA's support for the Russian Africa Corps. The Russian Deputy MoD assured Haftar of Russia's continued military support for the LNA.
On 2 June, Yevkurov travelled on to Niamey, Niger, where he was received by the interim president, General Abdourahamane Tiani. The main topic was military cooperation, but other cooperation was also discussed. Tiani invited Russia to invest more in Niger. At the end of the meeting a MoU on multi-sectoral cooperation between Russia and Niger was signed. On the same day, a group of Russian investors was received by the PM of Niger, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine.
On 4 June, Yevkurov is scheduled to travel on to N'Djamena, Chad.
Comment: Within the Russian MoD, Yunus-bek Yevkurov - who is a former, highly decorated paratrooper general and Head of the Republic of Ingushetia (2008-19) - is responsible for the mercenary operations abroad. In this capacity, he is overseeing the replacement of the Wagner Group by the so-called Africa Corps, which is directly integrated into the GRU, Russia’s Military Intelligence Service. The transformation from the Wagner Group to the Russian Africa Corps will probably be concluded by this summer.
Since August 2023, Yevkurov has visited Libya five times (August, October and December 2023, January 2024). The number of Russian mercenaries and troops in Libya is estimated between 1,200 and 1,800, including those supporting the LNA. It can be assumed that Yevkurov also met with the leaders of the Russian mercenaries in Libya and discussed the state of play of the establishment of logistic bases and assembly areas in Libya as well as future operations in the southern Sahara region. He may also have inspected al-Khadim, al-Jufra, and Brak - Wadi al-Shatti, the main Russian bases supporting the mercenary operations, as well as Qardabiya.
In the sub-Saharan region, Russian mercenaries are present in Mali, Burkina Fason, Niger, Sudan, and CAR, and eventually they will also be present in Chad.
Significance: The relationship between the LNA (and notably the Haftar family) and the Russian MoD only appears to be getting stronger, with Haftar reliant on Moscow for the provision of much-needed training, military support and military equipment. In return, Moscow is using Libya as Russia’s gateway to Africa, facilitating the establishment and conduct of the Russian operations in the sub-Saharan region. This is of increasing importance as Russia seeks to formalise and expand the Africa Corps in the region.
Nevertheless, establishing support bases in remote areas of Libya remains a challenge for Russia. In addition, there is growing concern and resistance to Russia’s activities among Western nations, yet efforts by the US and others to sweet talk Haftar into cutting his ties to Moscow have, unsurprisingly, come to nothing. So far, there are few indications that the West intends to take a more forceful position with Haftar. As for the Tripoli authorities, there has been no overt opposition to Russia’s growing presence, as Moscow continues to deepen its political and economic ties to actors across the country. Nevertheless, it is likely that rumours and conspiracy theories around Western attempts to thwart Russian plans through its own anti-Moscow Africa force will continue to swirl, with Russia’s involvement in Libya becoming an increasingly significant faultline in the politics and security of Libya and the wider region.
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Al-Wahda Bank in Benghazi freezes all check transactions due to fraud incident amid wider economic concerns in eastern Libya
Incident: On 29 May, the al-Wahda bank in Benghazi suspended all check transactions at the branch. On 3 June, the General Manager of al-Wahda Bank, Anas Lamine, issued a statement in which he sought to reassure customers that its banking system is secure. He stressed that banking would not be affected by the incident and all necessary precautions will be taken to prevent this incident from recurring in the future.
Politicisation of the oil sector continues as Abdul Sadiq attends OPEC summit as Oil Minister and NOC discloses 7.6 billion USD in revenue moved to CBL in 2024
Incident: Confusion over who is the GNU oil minister has continued this week. On 2 June, the GNU’s official social media platforms announced that Khalifa Abdul Sadiq participated in the 188th meeting of oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as the GNU Oil Minister. However on 3 June, the Second Deputy of the High State Council (HSC) Omar al-Obaidi and several other HSC member met with Muhammed Aoun in his capacity as oil minister, reiterating that he had been reinstated.
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Al-Wahda Bank in Benghazi freezes all check transactions due to fraud incident amid wider economic concerns in eastern Libya
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