5 February 2025: UNSMIL announces 20-member Advisory Committee
This week we look at UNSMIL's new committee, as well as the UN Experts Report on the infiltration of armed groups into state institutions plus NOC/ Audit Bureau investigations into Med Oil.
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UNSMIL announces 20-member Advisory Committee, first meeting to be held in Tripoli next week
Incident: On 4 February, UNSMIL announced the establishment of the Advisory Committee, as part of its multi-track political initiative announced to the Security Council on 16 December 2024.
UNSMIL said that the ‘role of the Advisory Committee will be developing technically sound and politically viable proposals for resolving outstanding contentious issues to enable the holding of elections, building on existing Libyan framework and laws including the Libyan Political Agreement, the LPDF Roadmap and the 6+6 Electoral laws.’ UNSMIL stressed that the committee ‘is not a decision-making body or a dialogue forum. It is time-bound and is expected to conclude its work in a short time frame.’ The proposals formulated by the Advisory Committee will be submitted to UNSMIL for consideration for the subsequent phase of the political process. UNSMIL will facilitate interactions of the Committee with concerned institutions.
It said the committee is composed of 20 Libyan personalities, who have been identified based on UNSMIL’s assessment of their experience and capabilities. The selection of the Committee members was based on the combination of following criteria: professionalism; expertise in legal, constitutional, and/or electoral issues; ability to build compromise; and understanding of the political challenges facing Libya. UNSMIL also took into consideration cultural components, geographic and gender balance. The Advisory Committee will hold its first meeting next week in Tripoli.
In parallel to working with the Advisory Committee, UNSMIL is preparing to facilitate Libyan efforts to address economic reforms, unification of security and military institutions, and other long-standing drivers of conflict.
In the days before this announcement, various names and draft lists of members had been leaked, with various actors expressing their support or rejection of individual names, or stressing the need for candidates to meet certain conditions. On 1 February, Presidential Council (PC) head Muhammed al-Menfi said he ‘appreciates the strenuous efforts’ of the Deputy SRSG Stephanie Koury to form an advisory committee and hopes ‘that it will be balanced and that its members will have the ability to be independent from pressures.’
Meanwhile, the newly appointed SRSG Hanna Serwa has welcomed her appointment but has not officially begun her work on Libya.
On 30 January, Hanna Tetteh said she is ‘honoured that the UN Secretary General has had the confidence in me to assign this challenging responsibility, which I will discharge to the best of my abilities and I look forward to working with all key stakeholders and partners in Libya.’ The same day, the UN SG Antonio Guterres said in an interview that foreign nations should end their interference in Libya, arguing that stability in the North African country would serve the interests of all parties. He reiterated the importance of allowing Libyans to choose their own leaders, warning that the current political situation should not be used as an excuse to prolong instability.
Separately, the divisions over the High State Council (HSC) have continued.
On 29 January, Government of National Unity (GNU) PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba met with Muhammed Takala, one of the contested HSC heads, and his presidential team. They discussed the challenges facing the country and their impact on the pending political blockade, especially in light of the appointment of a new UN Envoy. The same day, Khaled Mishri, the rival HSC head, issued a statement condemning Dabaiba’s meeting with Takala, referring to the latter as an ‘imposter’ and stating that there was a judicial ruling saying Takala was not the legitimate HSC president. Mishri accused Dabaiba and the GNU of interfering in HSC affairs and confusing the situation.
Comment: The Advisory Committee Members are named as: Abdulfatah Khalleefah Alsuweee ALSAEH; Abeir Ibrahim Alsnousi IMNEINA; Aboulqasim Ramadan Aboulqasim BAREEBASH; Ali M H KHERALLAH; Ali Saeid Ali ALBARGHATI; Ameenah Khayrulllah Mohammed ALHASYAH; Esam Yousuf Miftah ALMAWI; Ibrahim Mousa Aid Grada; Ibrahim Othman Adim ALI; Jazzeh Jibrreel Mohammed SHAYTEER; Kamal Mohamed H ALHOUNI; Kuni Ali Erhuma ABUDA; Lamees Abdul Magid A BEN SAAD; Maryam Aboubakr Khaleel Amghaar MOHAMMED ADH; Mohamed H Bashir OBEID; Nuri Abdalla A ABDULATI; Nuri Khalifa Omar ELABBAR; Omar Ibrahim Omar HUSEN; Wafia Ahmed Abdulmajeed SAIFALNASR; and Zahra Ali Almuzoughi TEEBAR.
Significance: It seems that none of the Advisory Committee members are HoR or HSC members and that UNSMIL has attempted to ensure that they are as independent as possible, as well as having balance between different groupings, interests and communities. Koury had always indicated that she intended to form the committee as soon as possible, though it is likely that the appointment of the new SRSG may have fast tracked the process slightly to ensure Tetteh’s arrival did not distract from the formation of the committee. Similarly, the plan is that the committee will have around 30 – 60 days to work on their recommendations. This is likely to maintain momentum and prevent the selected members from coming under too much external pressure and therefore becoming bogged down. It is unclear whether the outcomes of the committee will be shared publicly as they go – it seems unlikely as this would create more opportunity for the process to be undermined.
If the committee can be protected from external pressure while they work, the next big test will be what happens when they publish their final recommendations. As UNSMIL is at pains to stress, the committee has no decision making powers. As such, it remains unclear how UNSMIL will be able to convince the HoR to move ahead with the recommendations, whatever they are. As for the HSC, at present, it is effectively non-functional and there are few signs that the current rift will be resolved anytime soon, creating another legislative headache. Whatever the outcome, it is likely that the next few weeks will see speculation about the recommendations ramping up, with cases being made and pressure being applied as the committee holds its meetings. It also seems unlikely that the process will be finalised prior to Ramadan (starting 1 March), so an announcement at the end of Ramadan seems likely.
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UN Panel Report says fuel smuggling has hit unprecedented levels, warns of armed group control over NOC, GECOL, CBL
Incident: The UN Panel of Experts Report, covering the period from 18 July 2023 to 25 October 2024 and released on 3 February, highlighted that in the past two years, fuel smuggling out of Libya has reached unprecedented levels. According to the report, armed groups now have a decisive influence over oil revenue and the fuel supply chain, in addition to their control over several relevant entities in both the public and private sectors. This situation allows armed groups to amass unprecedented amounts of revenue from fuel-smuggling businesses due to an enabling environment at the national and international levels.
Sulieman pledges greater transparency and restructuring as Audit Bureau investigates Med Oil and Waha
Incident: Acting Chairman of the NOC Masoud Sulieman reiterates his stance on improving transparency and uncovering concerning practices within the NOC as the Audit Bureau follows up on his concerns over MedOil and Waha. On 31 January, Suleiman gave an interview to Reuters. Suleiman said that the NOC ‘has a strategic plan to increase production that we will continue to implement and make any adjustments to, whenever necessary’. He also promised to focus on transparency as much as on raising Libyan output, and said he is ‘working on forming a complete picture of what has been done in some companies, such as the Mediterranean Oil Services Company’. He added that he is considering possible office closures to enhance transparency.
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UN Panel Report says fuel smuggling has hit unprecedented levels, warns of armed group control over NOC, GECOL, CBL
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