30 October 2024: Meloni and Dabaiba open Italian-Libyan Business forum in Tripoli
This week we look at the Italian-Libyan Business forum in Tripoli, the CBL's short term economic plan, and the GNU and LNA meeting with the Turkish MoD.
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Meloni and Dabaiba open Italian-Libyan Business forum in Tripoli, relaunching stalled projects and signing new ones
Incident: On 26 October, the Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister for Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa, in the run up to the 30th Libyan-Italian Business Forum (LIBF) which took place on 29 October in Tripoli (the first to be held in Libya in over 10 years), expressed his wish that the forum would be ‘the cornerstone for strengthening cooperation between the two sides’, adding that the LIBF will witness the signing of agreements in four key sectors: energy, infrastructure, health and agriculture.
On 27 October, Italy’s Foreign Ministry modified the notice on the ‘Travel Safely’ website, easing restrictions on travel to Libya. The update provides that travel to Libya is no longer discouraged if motivated by work or business. However, travel for tourism remains discouraged, even if organised by travel agencies or tour operators. The event is expected to see the participation of more than 150 Italian companies.
On 29 October, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni arrived in Tripoli for the opening of the LIBF, opening the forum alongside GNU PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba. Meloni was accompanied by Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso. Dabaiba said that ITA Airways would resume direct flights to Libya from January 2025 and announced the launch of the Imsaad-Ras Ajdir road project. Dabaiba expressed his happiness with the positive progress in reactivating the Friendship and Cooperation Agreement that was suspended 14 years ago, and lifting restrictions on the travel of Italian business people to Libya.
Meloni expressed her pride in cooperation between Libya and Italy to achieve common goals and reaffirmed Italy's continued commitment to supporting Libya to achieve economic sustainability, which saw doubling in the size of trade between the two countries during 2022-2023. Meloni also added that her fourth visit to Tripoli represents the importance placed on strengthening relations between the two countries.
At the event, the GNU Minister of Transport Mohamed Al-Shoubi announced that the GNU has agreed to contract with the Italian company Todini for the implementation of infrastructure projects in the road sector, which include the development of the 134 km long Khoms – al-Aziziyya road and 160 km long al-Azizyya to Ras Ajdir road.
In the margins of the Business Forum, Dabaiba met with Meloni, discussing the continuously growing bilateral cooperation including on the issue of migration management. Meloni reportedly stressed the need to intensify efforts to combat human trafficking at the same time as boosting cooperation with nations of origin and of transit, in the context of the Rome Process and the Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum which was held in Tripoli in July.
Comment: Italy is Libya’s main commercial partner. The current volume of trade between the two countries amounts to about EUR 9 billion annually. More than 25 percent of Libyan exports are destined for the Italian market, while 8 percent of Libyan imports come from Italy. The growth of Italian imports to Libya nearly doubled in the last three years, growing from about EUR 1 billion in 2020 to almost EUR 2 billion in 2023. This was partly thanks to the stable sea lanes between the two countries, which offer Italian goods a competitive advantage in the Libyan market.
In his interview, Jumaa confirmed the news that the commercial flights of the Italian airline ITA Airways between Rome and Tripoli will resume soon, as anticipated by L-A two weeks ago. He also mentioned the EUR 8 billion-worth contract assigned to an international consortium led by Italy’s ENI for exploration and management of the A&E offshore facilities in the Hamada field (Ghadames basin). Jumaa referred to it as ‘a strategic project aimed at increasing gas production to supply the Libyan domestic market, as well as ensuring export volumes to Europe’. It is worth recalling that the deal was signed by the National Oil Corporation (NOC) with full GNU blessing, but was subsequently opposed by eastern Libya authorities and, more importantly, the GNU’s Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOOG) under its previous head, Muhammed Aoun. This intense opposition has brought the ENI-led project to a standstill. Jumaa’s comment might indicate that the project could be relaunched.
Jumaa also mentioned another standing problem in Libyan-Italian collaboration – namely the lull in the implementation of the Tripoli International Airport project. That project – worth EUR 10 million – was awarded to Italy’s Aeneas consortium in 2017, and was repeatedly delayed by armed escalations around the capital in recent years. On 18 September 2024, the Undersecretary of the GNU Ministry of Transport Wissam Al-Idrissi, announced the cancellation of the contract with Aeneas, due to the latter’s ‘lack of commitment.’
In early October, Elio Franci, Aeneas’s head, lamented that the Libyan authorities ‘began to delay the various payments, making non-contractual deductions and inventing loopholes that were not provided for in the contract’. He added that Aeneas continues to believe in the project ‘even advancing significant sums’ but he has written ‘dozens of letters’ to the Transportation Projects Board (TPB) of the GNU Ministry of Transport, to no avail, and appealed to Italy’s PM Meloni to ease the situation. Now Jumaa mentioned that this problem is ‘being resolved’ and the participation of Italian companies depends on compliance with deadlines, technical standards and contractual clauses.
Significance: The Libyan-Italian Economic forum represents a new and strong step towards strategic cooperation between the two countries. Its importance is underlined by the involvement of both heads of government as sponsors of the event and the rhetoric preceding it is also largely positive. While the prospects of concluding new deals meets Libyan desire to bring more international partners into their market and involve them in Libya’s reconstruction, the possibility to relaunch key projects involving major Italian stakeholders is key for Rome.
However, as usually in the Libyan context, the devil is in the details. While the signing of several projects, after months of delaying tactics, are a positive step forward, no clear agenda has been set (as of yet anyway) for the implementation stage. The LIBF is expected to give a push to Italo-Libyan business, but results are unlikely to be straight forward. The status of the GNU and concerns around the funding of key contracts are likely to swirl around any new/ revived contracts signed during this event. On the political/ security front, there is likely to be continued and intensified cooperation between Italy and the GNU (as well as with the eastern authorities) on migration.
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New CBL governor attends WB and IMF meetings in the US, presenting short term plan to address economic issues
Incident: This week, the new Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Governor, along with other Libyan officials, has been in Washington DC, USA, for the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings which took place 21 to 26 October.
On 25 October, Naji Essa and his delegation met with IMF experts and laid out the CBL’s short term economic plan. The CBL’s short term (90-day) plan includes providing liquidity and the development of electronic payment, strengthening the Libyan dinar and managing the foreign currency market, introducing a governing guide for the banking sector, and strengthening countermeasures against money laundering and financing terrorism. It also involves starting a dialogue to lay out a practical framework for a uniform budget for 2025 and setting out a medium-term economic vision, as well as activating the role of economic policies regarding cash, finance and trade and their harmonization to drive the wheel of economy and development.
Both GNU MoI Trabelsi and Saddam Haftar invited to Turkish Saha Expo 24; Turkish MoD briefly receives Saddam
Incident: On 22 October, both GNU Minister of Interior (MoI) Emad Trabelsi and Chief of Staff of LNA Ground Forces Saddam Khalifa Haftar, visited the SAHA EXPO 24 in Istanbul at the invitation of the Turkish Minister of Defense (MoD) Yaşar Güler. Trabelsi and Haftar sat next to each other during the opening ceremony and also met thereafter on several occasions. Libyan Army Deputy Chief of Staff Salaheddin al-Namroush and the Libyan ambassador to Turkey were members of Trabelsi’s delegation, touring the exhibition together. In the afternoon, Trabelsi was received by MoD Güler.
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New CBL governor attends WB and IMF meetings in the US, presenting short term plan to address economic issues
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