30 April 2025: Tussle between US and Russia for influence over Libya continues
This week we look at Saddam Haftar's visit to Washington, as well as clashes in Tripoli between Rada and the SSA and PM Dabaiba's proposals for removing fuel subsidies.
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Tussle between US and Russia for influence over Libya continues as Saddam Haftar visits Washington and Russian delegation visits Tripoli
Incident: Chief of the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Land Forces Saddam Haftar was welcomed in Washington D.C. this week as the US continues its efforts to entice the LNA away from Moscow.
On 28 April, Senior Bureau Official at the US State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs Tim Lenderking, US Senior Advisor for Africa and President Trump’s Senior Advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs Massad Boulos, and US Special Envoy Richard Norland hosted at the State Department a delegation led by Saddam Haftar, officially in the role of ‘envoy’ of his father Khalifa Haftar. According to the State Department, they agreed that ‘a secure, united, and prosperous Libya, with strong technocratic institutions including the National Oil Corporation and Central Bank of Libya, will be better able to do business with the United States and U.S. companies.’ The US said it will ‘continue to engage officials from western and eastern Libya and to support Libyan efforts to unify their military institutions as Libyans secure their sovereignty.’
Meanwhile, another son - Belqassim Haftar - was the guest of honour at the ‘Libyan-American Forum for Development and Reconstruction’ in Washington D.C.
On 28 – 29 April, the US-Libya Business Association (USLBA) hosted a forum with Belqassim Haftar, the Director of the Libyan Development and Reconstruction Fund (LDRF), as the keynote speaker alongside several other speakers and panellists. According to the Fund, Belqassim led a high-level Libyan delegation of businessmen, university presidents, and experts specialized in several fields and over 90 American companies and institutions participated. It said it held several bilateral meetings that concluded with the signing of many memoranda of understanding between the LDRF, the USLBA and other American companies. It stressed that the LDRF’s participation reflects ‘Libya's commitment to being open to international partnerships and promoting development and construction efforts’.
Back in Tripoli, a high-level Russian diplomatic delegation held several meetings with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Presidential Council (PC).
On 28 April, the Russian delegation headed by Alexander Kinshchak, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, met PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba. According to the GNU, Kinshchak delivered to Dabaiba a verbal message from the Russian leadership that emphasized the importance of bilateral relations between Libya and Russia and the need to activate the Libyan-Russian Joint High Committee. Dabaiba said he valued the message and stressed the ‘importance of building balanced cooperative relations with Russia, respecting Libya’s sovereignty and supporting its stability.’
The Russian delegation also held talks with the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Taher al-Baour, in the presence of the Russian Ambassador to Libya Aydar Aganin, discussing ways to strengthen relations and cooperation between the two countries. The parties emphasized the importance of continued coordination and political consultation, and exchanged views on regional and international issues of common interest.
Finally, the Russian delegation met with PC Deputy Abdullah al-Lafi in the presence of the Chief of General Staff of the Libyan Army Muhammed al-Haddad and his associates, as well as the ambassador of Russia to Libya, and the military attachment of the Russian embassy. The PC said they discussed the importance of supporting a peaceful path to address the current political blockade. The meeting explored activating the role of the Joint High Committee in order to increase military and security cooperation, ensuring the capacity building of the Libyan army and the modernization of its institutions according to modern professional standards.
On its part, the Russian delegation affirmed Russia ‘will continue to coordinate with the Libyan Presidential Council, support stability efforts, and work to promote bilateral cooperation, especially in the areas of military training, combating terrorism, border security, in addition to economic and investment cooperation in vital sectors.’
Comment: Saddam’s US visit and the Russian delegation’s visit to Tripoli come only a week after the Commander of the US 6th Fleet Vice Admiral Jeffery T. Anderson visited both Tripoli and Benghazi on board the USS Mount Whitney. He met with several Libyan military and political officials, discussing US-Libya security cooperation, regional security, and US support for the unity of Libya. The US has ramped up the frequency of its meetings with LNA and GNU military officials in recent months as it seeks to encourage the unification of Libyan military institutions, to persuade the LNA in particular to loosen its ties to Moscow and to send Russia a message that it does not intend to relinquish its influence in Libya.
Belqassim’s attendance at the USLBA forum and bilateral meetings follows a similar event in London hosted by the Libyan British Business Council (LBBC) earlier in the year. The LDRF is keen to secure contracts with Western firms and although there is certainly interest from some companies, so far most of the contracts signed remain with Egyptian, Turkish, Emirati and other non-Western firms.
Significance: The US and Russia are continuing to wrestle for influence over the various political and security actors in Libya, with Washington continuing its efforts to persuade the Haftars to disentangle themselves from Moscow. Saddam’s official visit to the US, nominally as his father’s envoy, is intended to send a message to Russia that the US still has influence over the LNA and that it does not intend to simply leave Moscow to do whatever it wants in eastern and southern Libya. The US also hopes to persuade Saddam in particular to move away from Moscow’s sphere of influence given he is seen as both the obvious successor to Khalifa in terms of commanding the LNA.
Although Bolous attended the meeting, it was framed as a State Department meeting, and it is unclear whether Trump has any involvement or interest in Libya at present. For its part, the Russian delegation’s visit to Tripoli is part of efforts to maintain its political, economic and security ties to western Libya as well as eastern Libya, in order to protect its position and influence within the country as a whole.
While the recent US moves are likely to make Russia more wary about its activities in Libya, it remains unclear whether such engagement will result in any tangible scaling back of the LNA-Russian military cooperation unless the US can offer like-for-like support in return – which it is unlikely to do. Although many European nations are also seeking to expand their cooperation with, and support for, the LNA, similar restrictions apply.
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Rising insecurity in Tripoli amid fighting between Rada and the SSA and a spate of assassinations; Attorney General warns judicial rulings not enforced
Incident: Clashes broke out in eastern Tripoli this week, sparked by the attempted arrest of a militia member. On 25 April, the Judicial Police, supported by elements of the Special Deterrence Force (Rada), attempted to arrest Moataz Ali al-Nuwaisri aka al-Kiko, who is wanted for drug trafficking, near al-Zawiya Street - al-Qadisiyah Island east of the centre of Tripoli. Al-Kiko and his bodyguards resisted the arrest. Subsequently, members of the Stability Support Agency (SSA) intervened, blocked the assault force and helped al-Kiko to escape. In the heavy clashes, at least three members of the Judicial Police/Rada were killed.
Dabaiba outlines potential fuel subsidy reforms amid continued concerns about corruption and mismanagement
Incident: This week, GNU PM Dabaiba outlined potential fuel subsidy reforms at Libyan Economic Forum, creating some controversy. On 22 April, Dabaiba proposed three alternative methods to reforming the country’s current unsustainable fuel subsidies: 1) granting direct cash payments in lieu of subsidies directly to citizens’ bank accounts (the amounts would be calculated based on an estimate of how much fuel the average Libyan citizen consumes); 2) increasing citizens’ salaries by the estimated average amount of fuel consumed; 3) allocating a quota for each citizen of subsidized fuel to be disbursed using preloaded cards. Any extra quantity of fuel purchased by a citizen beyond that would be purchased at the non-subsidised, full international price.
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Rising insecurity in Tripoli amid fighting between Rada and the SSA and a spate of assassinations; Attorney General warns judicial rulings not enforced
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