29 May 2024: GNU protests Greek seismic surveys south of Crete

This week we look at the GNU's dispute with Greece over EEZs in the Med, how the UN and the West are adapting their approaches to Libya, and how the eastern authorities are tackling migration.

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GNU MFA protests Greek seismic surveys south of Crete in an area claimed by the 2019 Libya-Turkey MoU

Incident: On 21 May, it was reported that the Government of National Unity’s (GNU) Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) had submitted the week before a note of protest to the Greek ambassador in Tripoli, Nikos Garilidis, regarding the seismic survey of a Norwegian-flagged survey vessel south of Crete (in the Greek exclusive economy zone (EEZ)). The maritime area is claimed by Libya following the 2019 maritime MoU between Turkey and Libya.

According to Greek media, there will be an appropriate response by the Greek MFA in the coming days, stressing that it does not recognize any basis for the Libyan allegations. Greek media speculated that the GNU MFA's protest note against the seismic surveys off Crete could have been initiated by Turkey. Allegedly, the protest note was handed over shortly before a meeting between Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on 13 May. 

On 21 May, House of Representatives (HoR) Speaker Aqeela Saleh received Agapios Kalognomis, the Greek Consul General in Benghazi, in his office. Saleh demanded that Greece use its influence within the EU and prevent contacts between the EU and the GNU, as the GNU is no longer a legitimate government. Saleh argued that continuing to deal with the Dabaiba government is an obstacle to the formation of a unified government and therefore hinders the organization of presidential and parliamentary elections in Libya. 

Comment: Athens has awarded hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation rights to an international consortium for blocks south and southwest of Crete, in an area that Athens considers as its EEZ in accordance with the International Law of the Sea. The GNU claims this area is Libyan under the 2019 MoU. However, the MoU is highly controversial and was rejected by eastern Libya, Greece and Egypt, among others.

The Norwegian ship Ramform Hyperion conducted 3D seismographic surveys in the waters in question from 22 February until 31 March this year on behalf of the consortium ExxonMobil - HELLENiQ ENERGY with the aim of identifying possible natural gas deposits west and southwest of Crete, north of the middle line between Greece and Libya. The Ramform Hyperion is now in the North Sea off Norway. A 2D seismographic survey of the same area was conducted in spring 2023 without triggering any protests from Libya.

The historic tensions between Greece and Turkey over territory and maritime exploitation in the eastern Mediterranean had been reflected in their support for opposing sides in Libya. Turkey has long been the GNU’s most important international ally while Greece has strong ties to eastern Libya, both due to shared opposition to Turkey and closer physical proximity. Although the relations between Greece and Turkey have normalised in recent years, and Greece recognises the GNU, tensions remain.

Significance: It is likely this development is a result of geopolitical manoeuvring and power play on Ankara’s part, with Turkey seeking to create some sort of leverage over Greece but without doing so directly (and therefore protecting their current political detente). Turkey certainly has enough influence over the GNU to order such a protest note to be issued to facilitate its own political agenda. It seems Saleh is attempting to take advantage of this renewed source of tension between Greece and Turkey/ the GNU, trying to exploit the situation to drag the Greek government away from its recognition of the GNU.

This development could result in increased political tensions between the GNU and Greece in the short term and a renewed focus on exploration and exploitation rights in the eastern Mediterranean – which could have broader geopolitical implications. However, it is unlikely that Athens will stop recognising the GNU, though it may seek to further strengthen its ties with the eastern authorities.

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Koury stresses need for inclusive political process amid broader Western focus on countering Russia, economic issues and municipal elections

Incident: The last week has seen the Deputy UN Special Envoy to Libya Stephanie Koury undertaking a flurry of meetings with different Libyan and international stakeholders as she officially takes on the mantle of Acting Special Envoy. The key messages from Koury were the importance of an inclusive political process, the need for elections (including municipal elections) and national reconciliation, and the need for unified state institutions and equitable resource sharing for the Libyan people.

GNS holds international conference on migration with limited Western participation; concern around Sudanese refugees in Kufra grows

Incident: On 25-26 May, the African-European Conference on Migration, organized by the Government of National Stability (GNS), took place in Benghazi. GNS PM Osama Hammad noted that Libya is currently experiencing a large wave of displacement from Sudan. He warned that they could end up on illegal migration routes. According to Hammad, his government, with the support of the General Command of the LNA, is ready to participate in the implementation of international plans to stem illegal migration flows.

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Spotlight on... Weekly Report

These weekly reports identify, contextualise and analyse key political, security, economic, and energy developments in Libya in order to assess their impact on political stability, strategic conflict drivers, and commercial developments. They combine both open source and local reporting from on-the-ground correspondents to provide vital context and nuanced, unbiased analysis on strategic and business-critical developments, rather than merely presenting events at a tactical level. These reports identify trends and use scenario-based forecasting to ensure commercial, governmental and non-governmental organisations alike are ahead of the curve in their understanding of developments in Libya and can calibrate their decision-making accordingly.

For more information, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.

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Koury stresses need for inclusive political process amid broader Western focus on countering Russia, economic issues and municipal elections