28 May 2025: UNSMIL publishes AC recommendations and begins consultations on four roadmap options
This week we look at the Advisory Committee's recommendations and roadmap options, as well as the LNA's Operation Dignity parade in Benghazi and reports the NOC is in arrears over fuel imports.
Dear Libya Analysis LLC Newsletter subscribers,
Each week, we will continue to share for free our traditional newsletter content (one article from our Weekly Report on Libya and its overall table of contents, plus teasers and info on our other products) via Substack.
In addition, readers interested in accessing additional Libya content can subscribe to the Premium (pay for) version of the Substack which gives access to two additional subscriber-only Libya articles per week, drawn from our Weekly Report. These articles will cover key developments and analysis from that week, whether in the political, economic, security or energy sectors. The premium subscription also gives access to our premium archives.
We also have a weekly Substack for our non-profit sister project the Libya Security Monitor (LSM) which you can access here.
UNSMIL publishes AC recommendations and begins consultations on four roadmap options; HoR pushes ahead with PM candidate review process
Incident: UNSMIL has published the Advisory Committee Report this week, with four main roadmap options outlined.
On 20 May, UNSMIL published the Executive Summary of the Advisory Committee’s Report on options for moving forward to hold elections and end the transitional period. The report constitutes Libyan advice to the Mission and will help inform the next phase of the UNSMIL-facilitated political process to build consensus, unify state institutions and hold national elections.
Special Representative to the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Libya Hanna Tetteh said that the report ‘is a launching point for a country-wide conversation about how best to overcome the political gridlock that has prevented elections since 2021’. She said, ‘the final path forward will be developed in dialogue with Libyans with the goal to build consensus on a way forward, ensuring all perspectives are considered, with mutual agreement. It is vital that it is not only Libyan led but also backed by broader Libyan support.’ International actors have welcomed the recommendations and reiterated their support for the UNSMIL process.
The Committee identified and proposed options to address key contentious issues in the current electoral framework.
1. Linking parliamentary and presidential elections
Problem: The law says parliamentary elections are only valid if presidential elections succeed.
Solution: Delink the outcomes and remove the dependency of parliamentary elections on presidential elections.
2. Holding both elections at the same time
Problem: Having both elections on one day raises political and logistical issues.
Solution: Organize sequential presidential and parliamentary elections within a well-defined time frame.
3. Eligibility criteria
All candidates with dual nationality must disclose their status. If they win, after the preliminary count and after exhausting the appeals period, they must provide evidence of starting the process to relinquish the second nationality. If the winning candidate fails to do so, a new presidential election will be called, the results of the parliamentary elections will be announced, and the head of the Senate will temporarily assure the president’s prerogatives.
If a presidential candidate is under investigation for a crime, they cannot be excluded unless there is a final verdict.
Allow military personnel and senior government officials to participate as candidates under conditions regulated by law.
4. Second round requirement
Problem: Even if someone wins a majority in the first round of presidential elections, in the current law, a second round of voting is still required.
Solution: If a candidate wins more than 50 percent in the first round of voting, a second round isn’t necessary for presidential elections.
The report puts forward four options that could serve as a roadmap towards conducting elections and ending the transitional phase:
1) Conducting presidential and legislative elections simultaneously; Presidential and legislative elections are to be conducted within two years, commencing once a political settlement is reached on the legal status and financial independence of HNEC, the necessary amendments to the constitutional and legal framework for elections, and a unified government. The political settlement should include provisions for adopting a permanent constitution for the country.
2) Conducting parliamentary elections first, followed by the adoption of a permanent constitution; A bicameral legislative council will be elected within two years, with the drafting and ratification of the constitution entrusted to the Senate. The new constitution will regulate all subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections.
3) Adopting a permanent constitution before elections; This option involves examining the challenges associated with the 2017 draft constitution and exploring the feasibility of drafting a new constitution.
4) Establishing a political dialogue committee, based on the Libyan Political Agreement to finalize electoral laws, executive authority and permanent constitution. Activate the dialogue mechanism and replace existing institutional stakeholders with a constituent assembly through LPA Article 64 dialogue process. This option is presented as the ‘last chance’ solution if the other options fail.
UNSMIL has started consultations around the report and its recommendations this week.
SRSG Tetteh has presented the summary to Libyan leaders in the east and west. Next, the SRSG says she will bring the options to the Libyan people for feedback, conducting polling and consulting the wider public, including political parties, youth, women, civil society organizations, security actors, notables and community leaders.
On 21 May, Deputy SRSG Stephanie Koury visited Zintan and the following day both her and Tetteh visited Misrata. During these visits, they held a series of community consultations, meeting mayors, municipal council leaders, youth, community representatives, and elected and military officials. They heard their concerns and ideas about developing a consensual roadmap for the way forward to elections. Discussions across all meetings focused extensively on the recent clashes in Tripoli and their potential implication for stability in the western region.
On 26 May, Tetteh gave an audio interview to the BBC, outlining the recommendations of the AC. She noted consultations are ongoing to ascertain which proposal might be most acceptable. She said consultations are expected to take around a month and that online tools will also be used to gather feedback. Asked about a timeline, Tetteh said the AC report thought it should take 6 months from the launch of the report to agreeing a roadmap - she said she is not sure about that but they will try. She said UNSMIL also needs to provide their proposal on what they think they should do. They don’t want to rush as it could be counterproductive.
UNSMIL has also recognised that the Government of National Unity’s (GNU) credibility and legitimacy is under pressure as a result of the recent clashes and protests
On 22 May, in a televised interview with Al Hadath, Tetteh said that, ‘For now, the international community still recognizes the Government of National Unity, but we recognize that the Government of National Unity is receiving protests and pushback from citizens, especially here within western Libya and within Tripoli.’ She highlighted that the GNU’s original mandate had expired and that the Government of National Stability (GNS) led by Osama Hammad doesn’t have complete recognition. She stressed that ‘If we want a solution that unites instead of divides, then I think it's important to have a process of consultation, develop a consensus and agree on the way forward.’
Comment: Additional AC recommendations include:
Increase women’s representation to 30 percent in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Ensure fair and proportional representation of cultural groups with at least 15 percent in the Senate.
Require national ID numbers for voter registration to safeguard electoral integrity.
Reconstitute the High National Elections Commission.
Establish robust security protocols to ensure safe and inclusive elections.
Improve electoral dispute resolution mechanisms to reduce space for contestation.
Before any option can be adopted, the Committee recommended that a political settlement be reached among key actors to establish a conducive environment for elections, including:
Reconstituting the HNEC board;
Granting HNEC financial independence;
Enacting a new amendment to the Constitutional Declaration;
Amending electoral laws to ensure their implementability; and
Reaching an agreement on a new executive authority with a defined mandate and timeframe.
To ensure a credible process, the Committee recommended the following:
Political recognition of the new government.
A timebound mandate with a mechanism to assess the government's performance, allowing for its dismissal if it fails to prepare adequately for the elections.
Restrictions on long-term financial or political commitments by the interim government.
A national code of ethics for political conduct during elections.
An independent national body to monitor the electoral process.
A national arbitration mechanism for resolving disputes.
As it stands, the House of Representatives (HoR) wants to establish a new government which it appoints and approves, with some input from the High State Council (HSC), and for that government to oversee simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections on the basis of the HoR’s existing electoral laws (based on the 6+6 Committee outputs). The HoR restarted the PM candidate review process last week, with a total of 13 candidates reportedly submitted to the Attorney General for checks. Many actors in the western region want to see presidential elections occur after parliamentary ones, to ensure that the HoR does not have control over the presidential elections for fear it would be skewed in favour of one of the Haftars. The GNU and PC are pushing for a new constitution to be agreed prior to elections, with Dabaiba essentially wanting to delay the appointment of a new government for as long as possible. Pc head Muhammed al-Menfi meanwhile wants to see the power of the HoR and Aqeela Saleh removed.
Significance: Although the analysis, conclusions and recommendations within the AC report are not necessarily new, this is the first time that such a review has been carried out in detail, from a legalistic perspective, and has been condensed into one report. As such, it is undoubtedly a valuable and useful document. The Advisory Committee’s report makes it clear that although there are several options which could lead the country out of the current political crisis, all of them require a new executive authority with a defined mandate and timeframe. This, combined with Tetteh’s explicit recognition that the GNU is under pressure and its mandate is expired, indicates that there is growing momentum within the UN and among internationals that agreeing a new government to replace Dabaiba is becoming an urgent priority.
However, given initial consultations are expected to last another month and Tetteh has expressed doubts that a roadmap can be agreed within 6 months, it is unclear by what UN-backed process a new government could be agreed in the more immediate term. A new government would need to be accepted by all the main political and security actors and would need a clear time-bounded mandate – what that would entail will depend on the wider roadmap that is agreed. While it is possible that some sort of emergency, temporary (possibly PC-led) executive could be agreed if Dabaiba’s position becomes untenable in the short term, Tetteh seems to be suggesting that maintaining that UNSMIL is working on the basis of maintaining current status quo, at least for the next few months.
In terms of the wider political process, as discussed on many previous occasions, it remains unclear how UNSMIL intends to persuade or force Libya’s intractable status quo actors to change their positions and move towards a consensus-based political solution – indeed, based on Tetteh’s various media interviews, it seems UNSMIL is not sure either. Based on their rhetoric and stances in the wake of the AC report, it is clear that none of the key political actors will change their positions willingly. While the AC report may provide a useful starting point, it will do little to solve Libya’s growing political, economic and security problems if it does not result in any meaningful changes to the political system in the short term.
Covered in our Premium Version:
LNA holds large military parade in ‘Khalifa Haftar military city’ to celebrate Operation Dignity, with attendance from Russians and Belarussians
Incident: The Libyan National Army (LNA) and eastern authorities held a large military parade this week to celebrate the 11th anniversary of Operation Dignity. On 26 May, the LNA held a military parade at the new military city west of Benghazi, overseen by LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar, HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh and GNS PM Osama Hammad. Several military officers and commanders attended, along with some international diplomats. Notably, the Russian Deputy Minister of Defence Yunus-Bek Yevkurov came to Benghazi for the celebrations.
NOC racks up 1 billion USD in arrears for fuel imports since removing the barter system due to lack of hard currency to pay
Incident: On 21 May, Bloomberg reported that the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has piled up about USD 1 billion of arrears to its fuel suppliers due to lack of cash. According to Bloomberg, the NOC’s availability of cash collapsed after Libya ended the controversial oil barter programme about three months ago.
For more...
The contents page for this week’s Libya-Analysis Weekly Report is set out below:
If you are interested in subscribing to our Weekly Report and would like to receive more information about the product, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
Spotlight on... Interactive Weekly Oil & Infrastructure Report
We offer a weekly interactive oil and infrastructure report every Wednesday. These reports monitor, analyse and geo-locate key energy developments in Libya each week, providing informed assessments and forecasting on production levels and the stability of the oil sector. The reports also assess risk levels at Libya's ports and provide coverage of political, security and economic developments in the country. Uniquely, the interactive interface gives users access to our extensive archives of incident, infrastructure and stakeholder mapping data on Libya. This includes thousands of geo-located political, security, economic, and energy incidents in Libya from the last four years, as well as detailed infrastructure and stakeholder mapping.
For more information, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
From our Blog..
On 15 May, The Intercept published a report by Nick Turse and Jonah Valdez, titled ‘Trump Is Building a Global Gulag for Immigrants Captured by ICE’. According to the report, Libya is...read more
To read our other blog posts, click here.
About Libya-Analysis
Libya-Analysis® helps clients understand Libya. We are a boutique consultancy with years of experience producing nuanced, evidence-based research, analysis, and forecasting on Libya. Our strategic insights are used by multinational companies, international organisations, and democratic governments to make sense of the latest political, economic, commercial, and security developments in Libya.
LNA holds large military parade in ‘Khalifa Haftar military city’ to celebrate Operation Dignity, with attendance from Russians and Belarussians
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Libya-Analysis to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.