24 July 2024: HoR and HSC members meet in Cairo, agree (again) to hold elections and form a new single government

This week we look at the HoR-HSC Cairo meeting, escalating violence and insecurity in the western region of Libya, and activities in the oil sector

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HoR and HSC members meet in Cairo, agree to submit a roadmap to hold elections and to form a new single government

Incident: Incident: On 18 July, the second expanded meeting of House of Representatives (HoR) and High State Council (HSC) members was held in Cairo ‘in continuation of efforts to build national consensus through direct dialogue between Libyans aimed at ending the political crisis and reaching elections.’ There was no formal tally of how many HSC and HoR members attended.

In their final statement, the participants agreed to:

1) Adhere to the necessity of holding presidential and legislative elections in accordance with the agreed-upon laws issued by the HoR, while working to continue expanding the circle of consensus;

2) Submit a road map proposal by members of both councils as the basic path to complete the rest of the necessary steps to reach elections;

3) Form a single new government by calling on the HoR to announce the opening of nominations and begin receiving recommendations and studying the files of candidates to head a competent government to supervise the running of the country's affairs;

4) The need to intensify and unify efforts to end the state of political and institutional division that increases the spread of corruption, high prices, and unprecedented deterioration of citizens’ living conditions;

5) Call on the international community to support national consensus and respect the will and sovereignty of national decision-making and unity and the sovereignty of Libyan soil;

6) Emphasize the importance of national reconciliation and supporting societal peace in order to achieve stability and build a modern civil state.

Neither HSC head Muhammed Takala nor HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh attended the meeting, but Saleh issued a statement affirming the message of the meeting’s statement describing it as a positive step in the right direction. He also confirmed that he intends to initiate the procedures for forming a new executive authority in accordance with the Constitutional Declaration and its amendments.

UNSMIL and Acting UN Envoy to Libya Stephanie Koury were not involved in this meeting.

On 20 July, UNSMIL said in a statement that it ‘takes note’ of the meeting. It said that ‘While the Mission welcomes all steps in support of a Libyan consensus that facilitates a Libyan-led and owned political process towards national elections, the Mission reiterates that any such steps should be inclusive with a clear path to elections.’ It encouraged an approach that builds on what has already been agreed and ‘includes other relevant Libyan stakeholders to ensure the outcomes lead to a politically implementable solution.’ It stressed that it ‘continues its efforts in support of the needed political agreement to address all contentious issues.’ 

Comment: The first ‘expanded HoR-HSC’ meeting was held in Tunis in late February 2024 with a very similar statement and list of points of agreement being issued. Shortly after, the first three-way meeting between Saleh, Takala and PC head Muhammed al-Menfi was held in March in Cairo under the auspices of the Arab League. UNSMIL had no involvement in either of these previous meetings and has maintained that a wider range of status quo actors need to be involved in any dialogue and that it should be under the auspices of the UN. 

The three leaders had intended to meet last week in Morocco or Cairo, but Takala refused to participate after the HoR passed the 179 billion LYD budget on 10 July without consulting the HSC. The HSC is due to hold presidential elections in early August, with former president Khaled al-Mishri (who previously worked with Saleh on the 6+6 Committee process to agree the electoral laws that the HoR subsequently passed) seeking re-election.

Significance: While it is notable that HoR and HSC members were able to organise effectively among themselves and agree on a joint statement, the essence of the statement is the same as what was issued back in February - they have still not been able to agree on specific timings or processes or next steps. Similarly, although Saleh has welcomed the meeting and says he will start the nomination process soon, no specifics have been given. Indeed, it will be difficult for Saleh to open nominations at this point because Takala has rejected the process and therefore the HSC is unlikely to play its part in approving the prime ministerial nominees, meaning the HoR cannot meet the legislative steps needed to agree a new government as laid out in the electoral laws. Saleh likely hopes that Takala will  be replaced in the upcoming HSC elections and that whoever replaces him will be more willing to engage (certainly not a given). For Takala, the participation of several HSC members in these talks despite Takala rejecting them could weaken his position and may increase the chances of him being replaced in the elections in August.

In addition, UNSMIL has made it clear that it does not support these Cairo-led HoR-HSC efforts to find a way out of the stalemate on the basis that in order to be implementable and widely accepted, any roadmap requires the approval of a wider range of Libyan stakeholders, including Dabaiba. Although UNSMIL’s influence and credibility has waned in recent months, Saleh will nevertheless want to ensure that any new government receives international recognition – this is much more likely if a new government is formed under UNSMIL auspices. However, as it stands, there is currently no active UN process or plan – Saleh likely hopes enough momentum can be reached around the HoR-HSC process to force UNSMIL to back it.

In short, the political process remains stalled and no major advances towards agreeing a new government are expected in the short term, despite the Cairo meeting.

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Insecurity in western Libya worsens amid fighting in Tajoura, violence and killings in and around Zawiyya, and renewed tensions and closures at Ras Ajdir

Incident: On the eve of the GNU’s high-profile Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum (TMMF) in Tripoli, fighting broke out in Tajoura, just 8km east of Tripoli’s Mitiga airport.

On 16 July, heavy fighting between Bashir al-Bugra's Rahbat al-Daraa Brigade and the Martyr Sabria Brigade took place in Tajoura. Heavy infantry weapons were used. The main focus of the fighting was on the coastal road from Tajoura Port to the end of the Second Ring Road. In the course of the fighting, a factory was shelled with a mortar. Parts of the factory caught fire. The road in the area of the National Heart Centre was closed. The fighting was triggered by the arrest of members of the Martyr Sabria Brigade by the Rahbat al-Daraa Brigade in the area of al-Tanasuh TV Channel, which is run by the Grand Mufti Sadiq al-Ghariyani.

Saipem wins GreenStream contract and Nigeria in talks to secure Libyan crude for refinery while Abdul Sadiq beds back in as oil minister

Incident: Efforts to secure international support and investment in the Libyan oil sector are continuing. On 19 July, Italy’s Saipem was awarded a contract to ensure the supervision and the subsea intervention services of the GreenStream pipeline throughout the offshore and onshore sections at the Mellitah and Gela terminals. The new contract, awarded by GreenStream BV, merges the activities that Saipem has been undertaking for GreenStream since 2008 as to asset integrity, inspection, maintenance and emergency pipeline services – but it also expands them to cover a wider range of scenarios and customer’s needs.

On 21 July, it was reported on international media that Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is in talks with Libya to secure crude for the 650,000 bpd plant and will also seek Angolan oil to overcome problems with domestic supplies.

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Insecurity in western Libya worsens amid fighting in Tajoura, violence and killings in and around Zawiyya, and renewed tensions and closures at Ras Ajdir