21 May 2024: Clashes resume in Zawiyya as armed groups continue to act with impunity

This week's newsletter looks at renewed clashes in Zawiyya, Dabaiba's trip to Brussels amid protests in Misrata, and concern about Russian influence in the energy sector.

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Heavy fighting resumes in Zawiyya between Baroun and Abu Zuriba following murders

Incident: On 17 May, five people, four young men and one woman, were abducted from their homes in Zawiyya – al-Sayyida al-Zeinab and murdered. Their bodies were found in the early evening in a car in Zawiyya – al-Harsha. The murdered individuals reportedly belong to the Awlad Abu Hmeira tribe. In response, protesters gathered in front of the Zawiyya Security Directorate to protest against the incident and the insecurity in the city.

The Criminal Investigation Department (CID), Western Branch, in cooperation with other security agencies, was able to arrest some suspects. The detainees belonged to the First Support Force of Muhammed al-Baroun (aka al-Far). Subsequently, the HQ of the CID was attacked by a group of gunmen who demanded the release of the suspects. Through the mediation of Nobles & Elders, the suspects were handed over to the Attorney General of Zawiyya to verify if the suspects are guilty. It is not known whether the First Support Force murder suspects are still in custody.

On 18 May, clashes broke out in several areas in the southeast of Zawiyya between the militias of al-Far and the militias of Awlad Abu Hmeira led by the deputy commander of the Zawiyya branch of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) Muhammad Hassan Abu Zuriba.

In the afternoon, the Zawiyya Council of Elders & Notables brokered a ceasefire between the fighting militias. It was agreed that the relevant security and judicial authorities would investigate the cause of the fighting and arrest those responsible. The head of the Council, Muhammed Khamaj, accused the rival security services of being responsible for the fighting in the residential areas. He emphasized that the state's official bodies must take responsibility for the situation in the city, which has been deteriorating for a long time.

The fighting reportedly resulted in two dead and 22 wounded, including several uninvolved persons. GECOL reported that the power grid was damaged in the course of the fighting. This includes two smaller power stations. There were power cuts in the south of the city. By 19 May, the situation in Zawiya was calm but tense.

Comment: On the evening of 18 May (after the ceasefire began), UNSMIL called for an immediate end to the fighting in Zawiyya, calling on authorities to ensure the protection and safety of civilians.

The National Institution for Human Rights in Libya regards the fighting in Zawiyya as a ‘failure of the Dabaiba government’ and is urgently calling for an investigation into the incidents by the Presidential Council and the Government of National Unity (GNU). It said the renewed violence between armed groups legitimized by the GNU is a major failure of the Ministry of Interior. The security sector must be quickly restructured and reformed by disbanding undisciplined and lawless armed formations.

The security landscape in Zawiya is deeply fragmented. The two largest blocks around Baroun and Abu Zuriba have been deeply hostile for years. The struggle is about the domination of the very lucrative smuggling and human trafficking business and the control of the refinery. Tit-for-tat murders are commonplace, with clashes occuring frequently. Al-Harsha is a stronghold of Baroun. The area in the southeast of the city is dominated by the Awlad Abu Hmeira, who also provide the Petroleum Facilities Guard for the Zawiyya refinery.

Significance: These latest killings and clashes in Zawiyya appear to be a result of the intensifying inter-militia tensions in the city, particularly the hostilities between Baroun and Abu Zuriba over control of key smuggling routes. Despite the deaths and scale of the fighting, it is notable that neither the GNU nor the Attorney General have commented directly on the incident, or the broader deterioration of security in the city, or sought to investigate it despite Zawiyya being less than an hour from Tripoli.

This is likely in part because the GNU backs Baroun and would like to see him secure greater swathes of the city, yet Dabaiba would be unwilling to mobilise Tripoli militias to intervene in Zawiyya because this could precipitate a major escalation of conflict, leave the capital vulnerable, and may not succeed anyway given the strength of the Zawiyyan militias. As such, if Dabaiba condemns the violence then is unable to resolve it, it makes him look weak. All of this is leaving Zawiyyans feeling increasingly abandoned and completely vulnerable to the whims of the armed groups. A lasting stabilization of the situation in Zawiyya is very unlikely in the short term, with clashes and violent incidents likely to occur frequently.

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Dabaiba burnishes his credentials in high-level Brussels visit, yet he could face increased pressure in Misrata over the gold scandal

Incident: This week, GNU PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba held several high-level meetings in Brussels, with a significant focus on migration. On 15 May, the European Council President Charles Michel received Dabaiba and his delegation at the European Union (EU) headquarters in Brussels.

Institutional competition over the oil sector continues as Aoun reinstatement remains unclear and GNS invites Tatneft to build refinery in the East

Incident: On 14 May, Daniel Kawczynski, a British MP, published a commentary in the Express, calling for rapid and coordinated Western response against the high levels of corruption in Libya. He mentioned the stalled, ENI-led NC7 project as well as others across the country – notably the project allocated to Saudi Arabia’s Esnad in the Dahra oil field – as examples of highly suspicious decisions taken by the NOC. He also mentioned the rise of fuel smuggling as ‘a serious threat to Libya’s ability to maintain its own fuel and oil contractual obligations to European states’.

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Dabaiba burnishes his credentials in high-level Brussels visit, yet he could face increased pressure in Misrata over the gold scandal