20 November 2024: Elections take place successfully in 58 municipalities across Libya
This week we look at the municipal elections which took place across Libya, as well as LNA and GNU naval vessels participating in US naval exercises and oil production increasing further.
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Elections take place successfully in 58 municipalities across Libya with 74% of registered voters participating
Incident: On 16 November, voting took place successfully for the first group of 58 Municipal Councils across Libya, organised by the High National Elections Commission (HNEC).
On 16 November, HNEC announced the start of the voting process during a press conference held by the HNEC Chairman Emad al-Sayeh. Attendees included the Acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) Stephanie Khoury, the resident representative of the UNDP Sophie Kimkhadzi, the Italian Ambassador Gianluca Alberini, the Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of Local Government Badr al-Din al-Toumi, among others, as well as representatives of international missions and media.
Koury said, ‘We hope that this process will continue in 2025, to include 58 municipalities, and that we will eventually head to national elections’. She called on the relevant authorities to provide the necessary funding and support to complete the elections in all municipalities. Koury pointed out that the number of registered staff supporting the elections has reached more than 4,800 and local observers more than 1,300, noting that the wide media coverage is evidence of everyone's desire for this electoral process to be transparent, fair and credible.
Al-Sayeh called on the House of Representatives (HoR) to introduce some amendments to Law 59 of 2012 regarding the local administration system, so that it is qualified for implementation and application on the ground. Al-Sayeh said that these amendments aim to ensure that elected municipal councils represent the basis of sound local administration, contribute to achieving the principle of fair distribution of wealth and regional development projects, and enable executive and oversight bodies to exercise their duties in an enforceable manner.
Voting took place from 9am to 6pm Libyan time at 352 polling centres and 777 polling stations in 58 municipalities. HNEC said that 74% of 186,055 eligible registered voters, who had received their voter cards, participated – so around 137,681 people. According to HNEC, there were 2331 candidates, of which 545 ran as individuals and 1786 ran as part of a party list, with 195 lists in total. Only 3% (17) of individual candidates were women, while 26% of list candidates were women (470). HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh voted, as did PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba.
On 17 November, the process of scanning and inserting the data from election result forms began at HNEC’s Counting and Statistics Centre. At the time of writing on 19 November, the results had not yet been officially declared. HNEC called on ‘stakeholders, voters and candidates, not to trust any results until they are issued by an official decision from the HNEC's Board’ amid reports of preliminary results circulating on social media.
Comment: Voter registration for the ‘Cluster One’ municipal elections started on 9 June 2024. Cluster One initially included 60 municipalities, 31 in Tripolitania, 12 in Cyrenaica, and 17 in Fezzan, though this was later reduced to 58. After several extensions of the deadline, in total 210,545 voters (149,233 male, 61,312 female) were registered until 14 July. It seems that around 30,000 registered voters then failed to collect their voter registration cards, meaning they were not eligible to vote. The phase for candidacy applications for the upcoming municipal elections started on 18 August and ended - after an extension - on 12 September. Several candidates were subsequently prevented from standing due to being ineligible. On 13 October, HNEC issued Resolution No.110 of 2024 setting 1 January 2025 as the starting date for beginning the election process for ‘Cluster 2’ municipal councils whose terms have expired. This includes 59 municipal councils.
Significance: The successful holding of these elections in municipalities across Libya is undoubtedly significant given that competing political, economic and security actors have been willing to support the process despite their enmities and allow voting to occur. Both the GNU and the GNS/ HoR demonstrated their support for the process on the day itself and it seems that there was minimal interference by armed groups. However, while 74% of registered eligible voters seems like quite a high rate, only around 137,000 people actually voted. This could lead to challenges around the legitimacy of the municipal councils further down the line, though this is unlikely to be an issue in the short term. Furthermore, the low proportion of women who registered to vote is concerning, as well as the low proportion of women standing as candidates.
The next area of potential conflict will come when the results are announced. If results are close or if there is strong opposition to certain winning candidates, then this could result in challenges to the results and the legitimacy of the process. The question of the GNU and GNS both validating the results may add further complications to this. If the results process goes relatively smoothly and any challenges are dealt with, then the next element will be looking at who has been elected in each municipality and whose interests they represent.
Although the campaigning and voting process seems to have gone relatively smoothly, it is very likely that key political and security actors in certain areas will have used their clout to ensure that their allies are in the best position to be elected. In some municipalities, armed actors are standing for election directly. In the East, it is very likely that the candidates elected will be broadly supportive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) – if any anti-LNA candidates are elected, they are likely to face significant pressure to toe the line where the LNA and Haftar family are concerned. The elections are likely to be more open to influence from rival blocs in the western and southern regions, with elections in Tripoli and Misrata in particular likely to be contested between pro- and anti-Dabaiba elements.
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Eastern and Western Navies participate in US AFRICOM’s Naval Exercise Phoenix Express 2024
Incident: Since last week, two Libyan warships – one from each of the navies of the Tripoli-based Libyan Army and the Libyan National Army (LNA) - have participated in US AFRICOM’s Naval Exercise Phoenix Express 2024. The training for maritime security operations included several drills like defence against terrorist boats, refuelling at sea, search and rescue, interdiction of suspicious vessels, and coordination with a multinational communication centre (MNCC).
Oil production rises to 1.37 mbpd amid additional maintenance works
Incident: On 17 November, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that Libya’s production reached 1.374 million bpd – the highest in ten years. Additionally, 202,983 barrels equivalent of gas brought total production to 1,577,101 bpd. This comes amid a flurry of announcements about maintenance works bringing new wells online. On 14 November, the Libyan Fertilizer Company (a NOC subsidiary) announced that it had restarted the second urea plant after a 16-month hiatus. The plant’s production capacity reached 80% of its full capacity, and the NOC plans to increase it gradually.
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Eastern and Western Navies participate in US AFRICOM’s Naval Exercise Phoenix Express 2024
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