2 July 2025: EU Migration Commissioner to visit Libya amid concerns over increased migration flows
This week we look at EU concerns over migration from Libya, as well as the intensifying diplomatic conflict around maritime rights in the Eastern Med and the IMF's latest report on Libya
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EU Migration Commissioner to visit Libya amid concerns over increased migration flows; Renewed concerns of US migrant deportations to Libya
Incident: European concerns grow over increased migration flows from Libya to Europe, especially to Greece, with the EU migration commissioner due to visit the country next week.
Last week, it was reported that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen had sent a letter to the leaders of the EU member states expressing her concerns over increased migratory flows from Libya and announcing the dispatch of the EU Commissioner for Migration, Magnus Brunner to Libya. She highlighted a 173% increase in arrivals from eastern Libya to Greece, emphasizing that while the EU must continue cooperating with Libyan authorities, there are growing signs that migration is being exploited for political purposes. She noted that departures from Libya account for 93% of illegal border crossings into Europe.
Brunner subsequently announced that he intends to visit Libya in the coming days, accompanied by officials from Greece, Italy, and Malta, seeking tougher measures from Libyan authorities to stop boats carrying migrants from leaving for Europe. Brunner acknowledged criticism over cooperation with ‘questionable actors’ in Libya but insisted that engagement with the Libyan authorities is necessary. While admitting the existence of violations, the commissioner reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to the ‘do no harm’ principle. He emphasized continued training of Libya’s coast guard on human rights and the need for sustained financial and operational support, particularly for search and rescue operations.
On 30 June, two missile frigates of the Hellenic Navy began patrolling off Libya to prevent migration to Greece.
On 1 July, during a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Brunner said his delegation would visit Libya on 8 July and meet with officials from both eastern and western Libya. Mitsotakis stressed that the authorities in eastern Libya must take action to reduce the flows to Greece, so as to prevent the establishment of a new migration route. He expressed his appreciation for the European Commission’s efforts in this direction.
The controversy around US plans to deport migrants with criminal records to Libya has reared its head once more after the US Supreme Court allowed President Trump to resume deportations.
On 23 June, the US Supreme Court voted to reverse a lower court order requiring the government to give migrants a ‘meaningful opportunity’ to tell officials what risks they might face being deported to a third country. This effectively clears the way for President Donald Trump's administration to resume deportations of migrants to countries other than their homeland.
In response, the HoR’s Foreign Affairs Committee rejected any attempts by the US to deport ‘intruders and criminals’ to Libya, calling the move a blatant violation of Libya’s sovereignty and a serious breach of diplomatic and legal norms. The committee said that forcing Libya to accept individuals involved in crimes or legal violations on US soil amounts to unacceptable interference in internal affairs and would provoke a firm and clear political response.
Comment: Italy has also flagged increased concerns about migration from Libya, as well as the generally deteriorating conditions, in recent EU meetings. In addition, the European Council has extended the mandate of the European Border and Coast Guard Assistance Mission in Libya (EUBAM) for an additional two years, until 30 June 2027. It comes amid rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece and Libya over maritime border rights/
In May, US plans to deport migrants with criminal records to Libya were revealed after a federal judge intervened to halt the deportation of a planeload of migrants to Libya. Comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this intervention upended the US government’s quiet diplomatic efforts with South Sudan, Libya and Djibouti. Rubio said Libya had been secretly negotiating with the US to take deportees, but had now had to publically reject the idea. The GNU has denied it has any involvement in these plans.
Significance: The increased European focus on reducing migration flows from Libya comes at a politically complicated time both within Libya and within the wider Mediterranean, with Greek concerns around increased numbers of people reaching Greek islands coinciding with renewed conflict over maritime borders in the same area. The Europeans will not want to wait for a new political process to be agreed or a new executive appointed before negotiating with the Libyan authorities.
As a result, GNU PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba in particular will likely try to use migration flows as leverage over the EU, seeking to strengthen his support and legitimacy in return for implementing measures to reduce the numbers of migrants leaving western Libyan shores. However, it is far from clear that Dabaiba would be able to impact these flows even if he wanted to, given the current instability. In addition, reducing the numbers of people leaving Libya means there will be more migrants left in Libya, increasing pressures and tensions locally. For migrants, it means humanitarian and security conditions are likely to remain dire.
There is also risk involved for Dabaiba in engaging in migration talks. Any talks with the Europeans are likely to result in rumours that Dabaiba is striking a deal to resettle migrants in Libya. This could spark protests around this issue. While such protests are nothing new, they come at a time when Dabaiba’s position is more fragile than ever.
Similarly, even though the US is now able to send migrants with criminal records to third countries, it would be very risky for Dabaiba to follow through with this plan now that it has been confirmed by the Trump administration. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out given Dabaiba may be increasingly desperate to find a way to stay in power. Rumours and conspiracy around this issue are likely to increase in the short term.
As for Haftar, he will also want to use migration as leverage over Europe, and this may factor into negotiations around the maritime borders in the Eastern Med.
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Tensions rise in the Eastern Med as EU backs Greece in its maritime border dispute with Turkey & NOC signs MoU with TPAO for offshore exploration
Incident: Diplomatic tensions have risen this week between Libya, Greece and Turkey over the controversial 2019 Libya-Turkey maritime MoU, with the EU backing Greece in the dispute. On 25 June, Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs George Gerapetritis discussed the maritime border dispute between Greece and Libya on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in The Hague with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. There was also a brief meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
IMF says political division has hindered capacity to limit public expenditure & implement reforms; CBL flags 3.5 billion LYD in counterfeit notes
Incident: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultations with Libya this week, noting that ‘the continued political division and widespread fragilities have hindered the authorities’ capacity to control public expenditure and enact necessary reforms.’ On 25 June, the IMF said in its concluding statement on Libya that real GDP growth is estimated to have declined to around 2 percent in 2024 from 10 percent in 2023, driven by a contraction in the hydrocarbon sector. At the same time, non-hydrocarbon growth remained robust on the back of sustained government spending. Both the current and the fiscal accounts have swung from a surplus in 2023 to a deficit in 2024. Reported inflation remained low.
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From our Blog..
On 16 June, The New Arab published an article by Alessandra Bajec, titled ‘Why Haftar might ratify the Libya-Turkey maritime deal’. Based on reports earlier this month that Libya’s eastern parliament was considering...read more
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Tensions rise in the Eastern Med as EU backs Greece in its maritime border dispute with Turkey & NOC signs MoU with TPAO for offshore exploration
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