19 March 2025: Rumours about alleged settlement of illegal migrants in Libya trigger protests
This week we look at the controversy surrounding migrant resettlement in Libya, as well as renewed CBL warnings about the USD deficit and the NOC's efforts to secure investors for its bidding round.
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Rumours about the alleged settlement of illegal migrants in Libya trigger street protests, strong political rejection and pledges to secure the South
Incident: A meeting last week between the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) sparked widespread rumours that the GNU intends to resettle large numbers of illegal migrants in Libya – something it strongly denies.
On 8 March, the GNU Minister of Local Government Badr al-Din al-Toumi met with the head of the IOM mission in Libya, Nicoletta Giordano, discussing migration management challenges and strategies to strengthen municipal capacity. Al-Toumi called for a collaborative effort between local institutions and international organizations to improve migration management and address public concerns. Giordano showcased IOM initiatives in Libya, focusing on stabilization efforts like disarmament, reintegration of ex-combatants, and support for migrants and municipalities. Both emphasized the value of technical communication for advancing cooperation and knowledge sharing.
In the wake of this meeting, statements about agreeing to resettlement plans were attributed to the Ministry of Local Government. This sparked widespread outrage on social media from many Libyans. In response, on 9 March the GNU denied these reports, calling them ‘misleading and baseless’ and stating that they do not support any projects to settle illegal migrants in Libya. The GNU stressed that ‘Libya's position is firm in rejecting any resettlement projects, while remaining committed to international cooperation in accordance with the principles of sovereignty and human rights.’
There has been a strong political reaction to, and rejection of, the resettlement rumours from many quarters.
Both the rival High State Council (HSC) heads issued statements rejecting all attempts to resettle migrants in Libya. The Muhammed Takala statement urged legal regulations for foreign workers, dismissed resettlement attempts, and warned against harmful rumours, reaffirming resistance to any threats against Libya's sovereignty or national interests.
On the other side, the House of Representatives (HoR) Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Committee expressed serious concern over the growing illegal migration crisis and its impact on public services and demographics. It condemned attempts by the ‘outgoing national unity government’ to settle illegal immigrants, with some international organizations being complicit. The committee noted that the HoR passed a law criminalizing the settlement of foreigners, with penalties for facilitators, and called for tougher measures against human smugglers. It emphasized the need for strict legal actions against those involved in settling migrants, considering it a crime against the Libyan people and future generations.
Government of National Stability (GNS) PM Osama Hammad also rejected any attempts to settle illegal migrants in Libya, emphasizing voluntary repatriation as the solution and condemning plans for migrant housing as a prelude to resettlement. He highlighted the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) efforts to secure borders, combat trafficking, and support migrants while rejecting actions that threaten Libya's sovereignty or demographic stability.
There have been calls for protests against the resettlement of migrants, while anti-migrant comments and rhetoric on Libyan social media has seen a notable uptick over the last ten days or so.
On 13 March, UNSMIL said it is ‘deeply concerned with a misinformation campaign that is fuelling tensions in Libya and inciting hate speech against refugees and migrants. Misleading narratives only foster fear and hostility.’ It urged all actors to refrain from spreading unverified information and to ensure that public discourse is fact-based and respectful of human rights.
On 14 March, about 80 to 120 people protested in Algeria Square in Tripoli, opposing the settlement of illegal migrants in Libya. The demonstrators carried anti-settlement signs and chanted slogans like ‘Libya for Libyans, no to settlement.’
There has also been a flare up of physical violence targeting migrants, in particular Sudanese migrants, in the western region in the wake of these rumours gaining traction.
The GNU has reiterated its rejection of the rumoured resettlement plans and has sought to demonstrate tangible policies for targeting illegal migration.
On 13 March, PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba chaired a high-level meeting of key ministers and security directors to discuss the challenges of illegal migration, including the security and economic impacts. The meeting focused on urgent measures to secure borders, combat smuggling and human trafficking, and deport illegal migrants in coordination with the countries of origin. Dabaiba said Libya rejects becoming a shelter for illegal immigrants or acting as Europe's guardian. The security and stability of Libya is a red line. He called on the international community, especially the European Union, to take responsibility and support Libya in managing this issue.
Minister of Interior (MoI) Emad Trabelsi highlighted the ministry's efforts in deporting illegal migrants, with 20,000 deported in 2023 and 32,000 since the beginning of 2024. He emphasized that illegal migration poses a threat to Libya's national security and requires a decisive stance. Trabelsi highlighted the government's consistent message during regional and international meetings about the severity of the issue and affirmed its commitment to taking necessary measures to protect the country's security. The MoI noted the estimate of over 3 million illegal migrants in Libya as unacceptable and called for a unified national effort to address the crisis. He reiterated the ministry's readiness to collaborate with the armed forces to secure the southern borders, a key entry point for migrants, and urged destination countries, particularly the European Union, to take responsibility and support Libya seriously.
On 15 March, MoI Trabelsi chaired an emergency meeting of the High Committee on Illegal Migration and Borders. He highlighted that addressing illegal migration requires securing Libya’s southern borders and announced the readiness to form a specialized border protection force in coordination with regional security and military entities. He emphasized intensified operations to combat human trafficking and dismantle smuggling networks, aiming to enhance national security.
On 17 March, Trabelsi presided over an extensive meeting that brought together a number of ambassadors and officials of the European Union and the African Union embassies in Libya, alongside representatives from the EU Mission, the IOM and the UNHCR. Trabelsi stressed that Libya will not accept being a protective shield to others without getting the necessary support.
He said that estimates indicate that there are more than 4 million migrants within the territory of Libya, which poses a serious economic and security challenge. He called for the EU to provide practical support to Libya by strengthening the security of the southern border - including providing modern equipment and technologies to monitor illegal movements, speeding up the voluntary deportation of illegal immigrants in coordination with international organizations, and combating human smuggling.
Comment: Rumours around GNU plans to resettle illegal migrants in Libya are nothing new – throughout his tenure, PM Dabaiba has had to periodically deny reports that his government intends to carry out such action at the behest of the EU or other international actors. In Libya, lucrative human smuggling networks (facilitated by the power and impunity enjoyed by the armed groups involved), increased migration flows from Sudan due to the ongoing civil war, and increasingly draconian anti-migrant policies adopted by some European governments means the numbers of illegal migrants and refugees in Libya is growing. The dire humanitarian conditions and abuse experienced by many migrants in Libya is well-documented.
Although the numbers of migrants entering Europe in 2024 via the Central Mediterranean route (generally from Tunisia or Libya to Italy or sometimes Greece) dropped significantly compared to 2023, Frontex figures for the first two months of 2025 show 6,863 illegal migrants entering Europe, a 48% increase compared to 2024. The main nationalities on this route were Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Syrians. Preventing migrants from entering Libya to begin with is very challenging, given the vast desert territories which comprise Libya’s southern borders.
Significance: As is the case in Europe and other parts of the world, the issue of both legal and illegal migration is emotive and politically divisive, with economic and security concerns about the impacts of increased migration often fuelling anti-migrant and xenophobic rhetoric, policies and violence. In addition, Libya provides very fertile ground for rumours and conspiracy theories to spread quickly and extensively via social media, especially when these rumours are reinforced by official institutions and actors. This created a perfect storm of denials and condemnations around resettlement plans, with the GNU’s enemies seeking to use this crisis to undermine the government’s credibility and legitimacy, despite no indication that such plans were real. It is likely that this resettlement rumour will continue to be used by Dabaiba’s rival as a stick to beat him with. However, while this could weaken Dabaiba’s position in the short term, as it stands it is unlikely this will result in Dabaiba’s downfall.
Nevertheless, in order to combat the rumours, Dabaiba and Trabelsi are seeking to show they are taking pro-active action through plans to secure the southern border and by shifting the focus onto Europe’s anti-migration policies. However, while Libya certainly faces challenges around high numbers of migrants, the number mentioned by Trabelsi – more than 3 or 4 million – seems too high given that Libya has a population of less than 7.5 million. In addition, Trabelsi’s plan to establish a GNU-controlled specialized border protection force is not realistic for the time being. The LNA, which is still struggling to establish control over the whole of Libya’s southern border, will not agree to a force which includes troops loyal to the GNU and is not under its control. However, a common unit for border control might be a project to be realized along the efforts to unify Libya’s armed forces.
Dabaiba will want to try to leverage greater tangible support from Europe - whether economic, political, or security-focused – both to help deal with the migrants prevented from leaving Libya and to shore up his own position. Given the recent rise in migrants entering Europe from North Africa, it seems likely Dabaiba may use this as a pressure point to secure additional support.
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CBL flags 2.3 billion USD deficit in March alone as GNU pushes NOC for greater transparency; Internal Audit Bureau divisions deepen
Incident: Concerns around the rising foreign currency deficit and the NOC’s budget and transparency of spending were discussed this week. On 17 March, PM Dabaiba and NOC Acting Chairman Masoud Suleiman held an extensive meeting (See Oil Section for more details) during which they tackled the NOC’s 2025 Development and Operations Budget, discussing the funds needed to increase production efficiency and achieve operational sustainability. Dabaiba also stressed the need for the NOC to provide a detailed explanation of the financial allocations for the exceptional budget allocated to the sector in the past years, and to ensure that it is employed to develop the oil infrastructure and boost production.
Bidding Round Roadshow gets underway in Houston with NOC meeting with key IOC CEOs
Incident: This week, the Acting Chairman of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), Masoud Suleiman, and the head of the GNU Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOOG), Khalifa Abdul Sadiq, launched the new bidding round (BR) roadshow in Houston, stressing Libya’s positive investment environment. On 12 March, Suleiman launched the ‘roadshow’ phase of the public bidding and exploration campaign in Libya at the CERAWeek. He did so in the presence of the acting Minister of Oil Abdul Sadiq, as well as Thomas Hardy, acting Director of Trade in the US, and heads and representatives of dozens of leading international companies in the oil, gas, and energy production industries.
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CBL flags 2.3 billion USD deficit in March alone as GNU pushes NOC for greater transparency; Internal Audit Bureau divisions deepen
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