19 February 2025: Situation for migrants in Libya remains dire as Attorney General investigates mass graves in Kufra
This week we look at the situation of Sudanese refugees in Kufra, as well as the attempted assassination of GNU minister Adel Jumaa and developments in the oil sector.
Dear Libya Analysis LLC Newsletter subscribers,
Each week, we will continue to share for free our traditional newsletter content (one article from our Weekly Report on Libya and its overall table of contents, plus teasers and info on our other products) via Substack.
In addition, readers interested in accessing additional Libya content can subscribe to the Premium (pay for) version of the Substack which gives access to two additional subscriber-only Libya articles per week, drawn from our Weekly Report. These articles will cover key developments and analysis from that week, whether in the political, economic, security or energy sectors. The premium subscription also gives access to our premium archives.
We also have a weekly Substack for our non-profit sister project the Libya Security Monitor (LSM) which you can access here.
Situation for migrants in Libya remains dire as Attorney General investigates mass graves in Kufra; UN calls for $106m in support for Sudanese refugees
Incident: The UN has renewed its calls for an investigation into the mass graves of migrants found in south-eastern Libya, while Misratan security officials have been detained over the abuse of a Pakistani migrant.
On 12 February, UNSMIL reiterated its alarm at the discovery of two mass graves in al-Wahat and Kufra, some with gunshot wounds. The victims had reportedly been held captive by traffickers for months and subjected to severe abuse and torture. Due to their irregular status, they were re-detained. UNSMIL called for their immediate release as part of a programme for alternatives to detention, along with access to vital services. It also called for a full investigation into the mass graves with perpetrators brought to justice. According to IOM, the grave may contain as many as 70 bodies.
On 14 February, the Attorney General’s Office said that the Kufra Primary Prosecution, with support from the Anti-Illegal Immigration Unit in the Southeast region, moved to the burial site of 58 bodies in Kufra as part of the investigation into the incidents attributed migrant smuggling and human trafficking organisations north of the city of Kufra. It said that a forensic medicine team consisting of 17 doctors working in the cities of Kufra, Benghazi and Tripoli directly undertook the task of extracting the bodies, conducting the postmortem examinations and collecting DNA samples from them.
On 15 February, the Attorney General said it had ordered the detention of two members of the Emergency Department within the Misrata Security Directorate due to their involvement in the torture and abuse of a Pakistani national while he was detained in the department. The investigation showed they violated the rights of the suspect during interrogation, deliberately torturing him. The AG said his treatment was cruel and degrading. This came after videos of the Pakistani individual being tortured were circulated on social media.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation for Sudanese refugees in Libya remains dire, with international calls for more funding to support them and host communities.
On 17 February, UNHCR said that humanitarian partners in Geneva had launched the 2025 Regional Refugee Response Plan which outlines urgent funding needs for Sudanese refugees in host countries, including Libya. The Libya chapter plan seeks 106.6 million USD, bringing together 20 UN agencies and international NGOs, along with their local partners, to support 375,000 Sudanese refugees, 70,000 host communities and 1,000 third-country nationals. The response, in close coordination with Libya, aims to provide essential assistance, from emergency relief to longer-term solution.
Engagement with Libya on migration remains a top priority for Europe, though it remains unclear how successful initiatives to reduce the numbers of people departing from Libya can be, let alone efforts to enhance human rights in the process.
On 13 February, Chatham House published a report entitled ‘How migrant smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya’, a systems analysis of key transit hubs namely Kufra, Sebha and Zawiyya. It highlights that since 2020 there has been an uptick in migrant departures to Europe, as compared to 2017-2019, and the de facto regulation of migrant smuggling and people trafficking by local actors. The report argues that because they are framed as rule of law interventions, European attempts to curb migrant smuggling and trafficking have addressed symptoms rather than causes. Migratory flows have fluctuated – but are significantly reduced from their 2016 highs – due to a series of transactional bargains that entrench conflict. However, this has made the issue harder to resolve, as Libyan actors seek to leverage flows of migrants, which are once again on the rise, for financial and political support.
The report recommends that a more effective strategy to tackle this issue would be to develop a ‘whole-of-route’ approach that contains a wider suite of policy tools than simply enforcement, most notably sustainable local development initiatives and peacebuilding efforts. These have the potential to reduce demand and the perceived need for migrants to move and tackle the enabling environment in which criminal groups and conflict actors operate.
Comment: In its statement on 12 February, UNSMIL clarified that on 7 February, a mass grave was discovered on a farm in Ejkherra, al-Wahat region containing 19 bodies, and on 8 February 40 bodies were found in Kufra district, some with gunshot wounds. Initial operations had uncovered 30 bodies last week. Meanwhile, according to IOM, from 2 to 8 February 2025, 790 migrants were intercepted and returned to Libya. Up to 8 February, 3188 migrants were intercepted and returned to Libya, while there have been 62 deaths and 12 missing on the Central Mediterranean route.
The Chatham House report’s findings illustrate how two interconnected feedback loops have driven the expansion of migrant smuggling and people trafficking. The first is a dispute over authority in each location, which spurs competition that leads to violent conflict. The second is grounded in economics: the structure of the economies in the three locations is reliant on informal and illicit cross-border trade and the movement of people. As state support has diminished and the informal and illicit sectors have expanded, reliance upon the latter to boost economic activity has grown. The report found that these two feedback loops have contributed to the entrenchment of armed groups and strengthened a pervasive conflict economy. These dynamics continue to frustrate hopes to establish unified and accountable governance in Libya.
The report highlights that while migrant smuggling and people trafficking dynamics are often solely viewed through the lens of criminality, a closer look at Libya’s trajectory since 2011 illustrates how the development of the country’s illicit marketplace – of which migrant smuggling and trafficking are central – is intimately connected to historical legacies, social dynamics and enduring conflicts over authority at both the local and national level. According to the report, these components are particularly visible in Kufra, where there has been longstanding conflict between the Arab Zwai and the Tebu over the right to govern the territory. Likewise, Sebha, a key transit point for trans-Sahelian trade, continues to be contested by a number of community groups.
UNHCR noted that since the beginning of the Sudanese conflict, more than 240,000 Sudanese refugees have arrived in Libya seeking safety away from violence and unrest. As the crisis continues, the number of refugees arriving is increasing, putting increasing pressure on humanitarian response efforts. Despite ongoing humanitarian efforts, Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers in Libya continue to face serious protection risks and have urgent humanitarian needs including emergency shelter, clean water and sanitation, health care and food. Furthermore, education and livelihoods are critical to building resilience. With more refugees arriving daily from Sudan and resources stretched, there is an urgent need to support Libya’s humanitarian efforts to assist Sudanese refugees. This is essential to continue providing life-saving assistance and protection services.
Significance: The discovery of the mass graves in Kufra and Ejkherra is the latest chilling reminder of the horrific abuses and mistreatment suffered by migrants and refugees in Libya. The re-arrest of those migrants rescued from people traffickers (due to Libya not recognising refugees and therefore treating all refugees and migrants as ‘illegal’) highlights the lack of options or recourse to justice for those suffering abuse. Although two officials involved in the abuse of the Pakistani individual are being investigated, this is likely only because they are identifiable in the video.
In the case of the mass graves, investigations are likely to be more complex, not least because people smuggling groups are closely intertwined with local armed groups and ecosystems. Such criminal investigations barely scratch the surface of the deeply embedded systems of people smuggling and trafficking, with widespread abuse, torture and extortion of migrants likely to continue unabated in Libya. Sudanese refugees in Kufra are likely to be particularly vulnerable.
Countering migration flows through Libya continues to be one of the main policy lenses through which international actors, particularly European actors, view the country. However, as highlighted by the Chatham House report, this is primarily a security-based view of migration, with the political, economic and humanitarian impacts of supporting Libyan armed groups to prevent migrants crossing the Mediterranean playing second fiddle.
Libyan armed groups will continue to leverage their control over the flows of people to Europe to secure political and financial support. Furthermore, while lip service might be paid to improving humanitarian conditions and cracking down on abuse, this is highly unlikely to happen while Libya’s armed groups continue to operate with impunity and while international actors are unwilling or unable to sanction or withdraw their cooperation from groups involved in such abuse.
Covered in our Premium Version:
GNU minister wounded in assassination attempt in Tripoli
Incident: On 12 February in the morning, the car of GNU Minister of State for Prime Minister and Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa was shot at by unidentified gunmen shortly after he had left Palm City on the Second Ring Road in Tripoli. The car was hit with 14 bullets, two of which hit the minister’s legs. Jumaa was transported to Abu Salim Hospital and admitted to the intensive care unit for treatment. The GNU condemned the assassination attempt and said that the minister’s condition is stable. The GNU added that security agencies have started an investigation to identify and arrest the assailants and to reveal the background of the attack.
Tensions remain high within the oil sector as NOC remains focused on Waha Company and is forced to deny it has manipulated oil production figures
Incident: On 16 February, the NOC issued a statement regarding Libyan oil production rates. The NOC said that ‘some media outlets’ as well as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) circulated ‘inaccurate data and information regarding Libya’s oil production rates’, based on ‘unreliable sources’. The NOC stressed that it is the only ‘official body authorised to monitor and follow up on Libyan oil production, and it is the only one capable of announcing or publishing the correct numbers and everything related to the Libyan oil sector’. It clarified that the daily production rate (which is what the NOC publishes every few days) does not necessarily correspond to the monthly or annual averages.
For more...
The contents page for this week’s Libya-Analysis Weekly Report is set out below:
If you are interested in subscribing to our Weekly Report and would like to receive more information about the product, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
Spotlight on... Interactive Weekly Oil & Infrastructure Report
We offer a weekly interactive oil and infrastructure report every Wednesday. These reports monitor, analyse and geo-locate key energy developments in Libya each week, providing informed assessments and forecasting on production levels and the stability of the oil sector. The reports also assess risk levels at Libya's ports and provide coverage of political, security and economic developments in the country. Uniquely, the interactive interface gives users access to our extensive archives of incident, infrastructure and stakeholder mapping data on Libya. This includes thousands of geo-located political, security, economic, and energy incidents in Libya from the last four years, as well as detailed infrastructure and stakeholder mapping.
For more information, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
From our Blog..
On 13 February, Chatham House published a research paper by Tim Eaton and Lubna Yousef, titled ‘How migrant smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya’. The paper looks at the development of migrant smuggling and trafficking networks through...read more
To read our other blog posts, click here.
About Libya-Analysis
Libya-Analysis® helps clients understand Libya. We are a boutique consultancy with years of experience producing nuanced, evidence-based research, analysis, and forecasting on Libya. Our strategic insights are used by multinational companies, international organisations, and democratic governments to make sense of the latest political, economic, commercial, and security developments in Libya.
GNU minister wounded in assassination attempt in Tripoli
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Libya-Analysis to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.