18 December 2024: Koury presents new political plan for Libya
This week we look at acting SRSG Koury's new political plan for Libya, as well as an increase in Russian flights to Benghazi and fires at Zawiyya refinery due to nearby clashes.
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Koury presents new political plan involving a technical committee, possible new/unified government and wider dialogue
Incident: Acting UN Special Representative for the Secretary General (SRSG) Stephanie Koury this week presented a new political plan designed to bring Libya out of the current political quagmire.
On 15 December, Koury published a video statement addressed to the Libyan people saying that she would present a UNSMIL-facilitated process for Libya the following day at the UN Security Council (UNSC). She said the main aims of her plan are to preserve stability, prevent conflict, support the unification of state institutions, advance the transition towards elections and address longstanding drivers of conflict. She stressed the plan will adhere to national ownership, inclusivity, transparency and accountability, and will be an incremental process led by the Libyan people.
On 16 December, Koury explained to the UNSC that ‘the status quo is unsustainable and has persisted for too long. Unilateral actions pursued by political elites have deeply eroded Libya’s institutions into parallel and competing structures.’ She noted that it is nearly three years since ‘the indefinite postponement of national elections in 2021’ adding that ‘as unresolved issues continue to stall political progress, Libya’s national unity and territorial integrity are under threat.’ She also highlighted the desire of Libyans to hold elections, noting the success of recent municipal elections.
Objectives and Principles:
Koury said she aims to facilitate this process on the basis of the following objectives and principles: (1) Preserving stability on the ground; (2) Pursuing Libyan ownership by building on existing Libyan frameworks; (3) To help unify and strengthen institutions and their legitimacy; and (4) Inclusivity of Libyan political forces and cultural components. She said she intends to facilitate this process through an incremental, flexible approach to enable progressive building of consensus. She also noted that this incremental approach is also designed in such a way as to not predetermine any decisions made by the next Special Representative, and can be adjusted as appropriate.
Establishment of a technical committee:
In line with paragraph 2 and 5 of resolution 2755 (2024), UNSMIL intends to establish an advisory committee to develop options for resolving outstanding issues in the electoral framework and pave the way for the holding of general elections and one government for all Libyans. According to Koury, this will be a time-bound advisory committee tasked to review outstanding issues in the electoral framework and make viable proposals and options for an overall roadmap for the holding of elections. The committee will be composed of experts and respected personalities, who are reflective of the spectrum of Libya’s political forces, social, cultural and geographical components.
She stressed it is her priority to address contentious issues in the legal framework for the elections, noting that while ‘the existing framework is the positive outcome of Libyan-Libyan efforts, and a good basis, it remains highly contentious among Libyans, and it is unlikely to produce a viable and peaceful electoral event without some tweaks.’ She reiterated the need to be mindful of the lessons from the failed 2021 election. She also stressed that ‘the Advisory committee is not a dialogue group to take decisions but rather it is to generate options for use in a follow-on phase by Libyan decision -makers.’ She said she was compelled to stress this due to the ‘the constructive engagement and feedback’ from her interactions with Libyan regional and international actors in recent weeks, with who she shared the broad parameters of the initiative.
Establishment of a new/ unified government:
Koury highlighted the ongoing controversy over the executive authority and the destabilising impact of the successive transitional governments and Libya’s decade long and open-ended interim arrangements. She said that ‘any unified government that might emerge from Libyan-Libyan negotiations, should be strictly bound by principles, safeguards, milestones and timelines to take the country to elections, as a condition for its international recognition and legitimacy.’
Structured dialogue on long-term conflict drivers:
Koury went on to say that, building on ongoing efforts by Libyans, UNSMIL also intends to convene with Libyan partners a structured dialogue to consolidate consensus around a unified national vision for the future of the country. She said that ‘long-term conflict drivers have remained unaddressed and have prevented Libya to move to a permanent system of governance which is centred on a shared collective vision on fundamental issues and relationships between the individuals and the state. Ensuring full, equal and meaningful participation of all segments of society – particularly youth and women – remain UNSMIL’s priority to fostering inclusivity, building national unity and enhancing the legitimacy of the political process.’ She added she hopes that this process can build an important legacy and support the conclusion of the constitution-making process down the road.
In her UNSC address, Koury concluded saying that ‘Libya's guns largely remain silent but it is neither stable nor at peace.’ She said, ‘The success of the UN-facilitated political process first and foremost requires political will and the commitment of Libyan actors to refrain from unilateral actions that continue to entrench institutional divisions and polarization. Unity of purpose and coordinated support from Libya’s regional and international partners is equally critical.’
The formal response from some Libyan actors to Koury’s UNSC address and plan has been negative, while others have been positive, though many have not directly commented so far.
One of the contested heads of the High State Council (HSC), Khaled al-Mishri, said that the HSC under his leadership welcomes Koury’s plan. Emphasizing Libya's ownership of the political process, he expressed ‘our full support to work to push the political process towards achieving electoral merit, and call on all parties concerned to take all necessary steps to bring the elections as soon as possible, under the supervision of a united government.’
After Koury’s address the House of Representatives (HoR) issued a statement from four of its members including First Deputy Speaker Fawzi al-Nuwairi, addressed to the Libyan people, condemning Koury’s plan and questioning her intent. They claimed ‘the Libyan issue continues to be tampered with through irresponsible international interventions, and the absence of any serious and real steps by the United Nations mission to end the state of political deadlock and restore security and stability to our country.’ They said that Koury’s plan ‘contained nothing but general phrases and repeated positions’ and said UNSMIL, ‘through its complacent position… has become part of the problem instead of being a means of solution.’
Western diplomats have given their support to the plan, while Russia has expressed concerns.
The representative of the Russian Federation stressed that the task for the current UN team in Tripoli ‘is purely to set the stage to facilitate the future new wave of UN mediation and to support the Libyan political process’, warning Koury not to overstep this framework – Russia limited UNSMIL’s mandate renewal to 3 months (expiring end of January 2025) unless a new SRSG is appointed before then.
On 16 December, the European Union said it welcomed Koury’s proposal, calling it a ‘timely and positive development, which we fully support.’ The EU strongly encouraged all Libyan and international stakeholders to engage in a ‘meaningful, responsible and constructive manner with the UN and its representative in Libya’, stressing that ‘collective commitment to this new mediation mechanism is essential to ensure its success.’
On 17 December, the governments of France, Germany, Italy, the US and the UK (P3+2) issued a joint statement saying they ‘strongly support inclusive efforts towards a political agreement that can reverse institutional fragmentation, unify the government and more broadly the country, and establish a credible pathway towards inclusive, free, fair and transparent presidential and parliamentary elections.’ They said they are ‘ready to do all we can’ to ensure the success of the efforts, called on all Libyan stakeholders to engage with the UN process and called on ‘relevant parties to refrain from any parallel and uncoordinated initiatives.’
Comment: In the run up to the UNSC briefing this week, Koury and her team held several meetings with international and Libyan actors in Libya. Notably, Koury sought to secure some sort of international consensus around her plan through the Wilton Park meeting in the UK 4 – 6 December.
The HoR member statement rejecting Koury’s plan is a classic and predictable move to undermine the UN’s authority and assert the HoR’s legislative authority, while giving HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh plausible deniability insofar as the statement does not come directly from him. Such statements can thereby be used to create additional pressure and leverage, while also appealing to a constituent of Libyans who are suspicious of international interference and interests in their country.
Significance: Koury has been building up to announcing a plan for some time, with the impending UNSMIL mandate renewal likely giving greater urgency to efforts to get a new process underway before the end of January. While the outlined plan is not ground-breaking, it is a logical first move towards reviving the stalled political process insofar as it seeks to address the outstanding issues in the electoral laws through a technical committee, while not explicitly altering the existing framework or removing the HoR’s authority over the legislative process. The latter ‘hard’ options would have been near impossible for Koury to introduce both because she does not have the authority of a full SRSG and because there would have been strong international and Libyan pushback against it, meaning it would not have got off the ground.
As such, the loosely structured time line and flexible components are designed to try and get as broad a buy-in as possible from the key Libyan and international stakeholders while still creating some direction and momentum. This ‘soft’ approach reduces the scope for significant pushback from the HoR and HSC, and their international allies, as the plan does not take decision-making power away from them. Similarly, the plan makes it clear that the selection of a new government will be intra-Libyan, while also stressing that any new government will only secure international recognition if it sticks to a clearly defined set of tasks and timelines in order for elections to be held. The flipside is that the process as it stands is very open-ended and does not, in and of itself, create any real compulsion for Libyan stakeholders to engage with it. The open-ended nature could also result in the process dragging on for several months (as has happened so many times in the past).
Fundamentally, this process can only work if the majority of Libyan and internationals engage with it. Despite the usual rumblings and rejections, it seems Koury has put in the legwork and for now at least there is buy-in. It is far from clear how long that will last however, with a very real risk that this becomes yet another failed political process because of a lack of international unity and an unwillingness to put real pressure and/or sanctions on the Libyan actors to force them to play ball.
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Russia warns its citizens against coming to Libya while increasing the number of military flights to Libya
Incident: On 12 December, the Russian Embassy in Libya renewed its warning to Russians not to travel to Libya for personal and tourism-related purposes, as there is still a danger to life and health. According to the embassy, this is especially the case in the western part of the country. It is dangerous to travel to Libya for unofficial purposes, as the military and political situation is still very tense. The Embassy emphasizes that this warning includes transit through Libya by any means of transportation. In a reaction to this statement, the GNU’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) called on the Russian MFA to clarify the motivation and reasons for this travel warning.
Force majeure and state of emergency declared at Zawiyya refinery after fuel tanks are hit during clashes in the vicinity
Incident: On 15 December, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared a state of force majeure and emergency of the third degree (maximum) after a number of fuel tanks at the Zawiyya Refinery were severely damaged during the early morning hours, which led to the outbreak of fires. This incident was caused by gunfire during clashes between armed groups in the vicinity of the refinery. The NOC appealed to the GNU to ‘intervene to resolve these clashes and eliminate sedition, in any form, given the great danger it poses to the lives of civilians in the event that the refinery tanks continue to be exposed to similar damage’.
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