16 October 2024: Acting UN Envoy indicates she will push to revive political process
This week we look at Koury's UNSC briefing, Saleh's attempts to play down the presence of Russian forces in eastern Libya, and oil production reaching 1.3 million bpd.
Dear Libya Analysis LLC Newsletter subscribers,
Each week, we will continue to share for free our traditional newsletter content (one article from our Weekly Report on Libya and its overall table of contents, plus teasers and info on our other products) via Substack.
In addition, readers interested in accessing additional Libya content can subscribe to the premium (pay for) version of the Substack which gives access to two additional subscriber-only Libya articles per week, drawn from our Weekly Report. These articles will cover key developments and analysis from that week, whether in the political, economic, security or energy sectors. The premium subscription also gives access to our premium archives.
Acting UN Envoy indicates she will push to revive political process; AU delegation discusses national reconciliation conference
Incident: On 9 October, the UN Security Council (UNSC) held a session on Libya with a briefing by Acting UN Envoy to Libya Stephanie Koury. She recognised the ‘constructive engagement’ by the House of Representatives (HoR), the High State Council (HSC), the Presidential Council (PC) and other Libyan leaders in finding a resolution to the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) crisis, as well as ‘members of the international community who supported a speedy resolution.’ However, she stressed that steps remain to be taken, starting with the appointment of a Board of Directors. She noted that competent, accountable CBL leadership is essential to restoring trust among the Libyan people and credibility in the global financial system, stressing the need to ‘de-politicize the use of Libyan institutions and natural resources for political gains.’
Koury warned that other actions continue to fuel divisions, citing the dispute over the HoR appointing constitutional judges and the HoR revoking the mandate of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and of the PC and as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. She also highlighted the continued division within the HSC over the presidential elections, noting there are ‘reports of some HSC members being threatened by security agencies in Tripoli’ and warning these ‘practices undermine the independence of the institution and create an unacceptable climate of fear.’
Koury stressed that ‘if unilateral actions continue, they will only undermine Libya’s sovereignty, plunge the country into further crisis, and distract from the task at hand: – paving the way to a comprehensive political solution.’ She said that the resolution of the CBL crisis ‘signals hope for progress on an inclusive political process, facilitated by the United Nations, which can take the country to general elections and long-term stability. UNSMIL is actively working to advance such a process, for which international support remains crucial.’ Koury said she intends ‘to build on recent positive achievements and advance an inclusive political process in the coming weeks aimed at breaking the political deadlock addressing longstanding conflict drivers and moving towards national elections.’
The UNSC members welcomed the CBL agreement and ‘called on relevant institutions to take the necessary steps towards finalizing financial arrangements and establishing a unified budget to ensure the stability of Libya’s financial system and the benefit of all Libyans.’ They also called on Libyan actors and institutions to refrain from and address any unilateral actions which increase tensions, welcomed the resumption of oil production and stressed the need to depoliticise Libya’s oil resources.
Discussions also touched on the renewal of UNSMIL’s mandate and the need for a new envoy to be appointed. According to the UN press release of the session, the Council members were near-unanimous in expressing support for UNSMIL’s role in facilitating a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process and promoting a peaceful resolution to current challenges, ahead of its mandate renewal at the end of the month, with some speakers encouraging the Secretary-General to appoint a Special Representative as soon as possible. While echoing that call, the Russian Federation’s representative observed that without the appointment of a new UNSMIL head, ‘we cannot agree to extend the UNSMIL mandate for a long period’.
This week has also seen the revival of AU-Libya talks around a reconciliation conference. On 11 October, the President of Mauritania and President of the African Union (AU), Muhammed al-Ghazwani, led an AU delegation visit to Tripoli where they were welcomed with an official reception ceremony. They met with PC head Muhammed al-Menfi and PC Deputy Abdullah al-Lafi and separately with GNU PM Abdul Hameed Dabaiba. The PC meeting reviewed the steps taken since the launch of the national reconciliation process, led by the PC in partnership with the AU. Menfi stressed that the PC is not a party to the conflict in Libya and is in communication with all parties, making sure none of them are excluded on the path of reconciliation and continuing to promote national ownership of the solution. Dabaiba said the visit represents a strong message of support for Libya at a crucial time as ‘the Libyan political landscape enters a new phase, after we have begun taking decisive steps to resolve the obstacles that have hindered the political landscape for years.’
In response to reports that the AU intends to hold the planned National Reconciliation Conference in an African nation, rather than inside Libya, on 14 October al-Lafi said that the national reconciliation process cannot be internationalised. He warned that if the national reconciliation conference was not held inside Libya, it would be subject to criticism and disagreement among Libyans.
Comment: On security, Koury stressed that ‘human rights violations across Libya remain alarming. Over the last two months, over 23 arbitrary arrests, detentions, and forced disappearances were reported, including three women and children, in western and eastern Libya, many politically motivated.’ She called on Libyan authorities to implement the recommendations in a UN report released in late August documenting human rights violations by the Al-Kani militias in Tarhouna and welcomed the arrest warrants issued by the ICC against six Libyans for atrocity crimes in the same town.
The AU-PC Reconciliation Conference was due to be held in April 2024 in Sirte but was postponed due to many Libyan actors refusing to participate. The scope and mission of the planned conference, and how it fits into other political discussions, is also unclear. Another controversy around the latest AU visit is that they did not visit Benghazi, though the Mauritanian presidency stated that it would soon visit this city in eastern Libya without specifying an exact date.
Significance: Koury’s UNSC briefing suggests that she aims to revive the long-stalled political process in the coming weeks, trying to build on momentum from the CBL agreement. However, there will be many challenges involved, not least that there has been no notable shift in international interest or engagement in Libya in geopolitical terms, meaning the international pressure needed to force the Libyan elite to commit to a political process is very unlikely to emerge. The HoR and HSC under Khaled al-Mishri appear keen to push ahead with a new ‘unified’ government, but the HSC members aligned with rival Muhammed Takala are likely to challenge any HSC decisions made while the division persists. Furthermore, as has been the case in past months and years, PM Dabaiba is very unlikely to leave his position willingly, while PC head Menfi has demonstrated he is more willing to wield his political powers aggressively than in the past.
Covered in our Premium Version:
HoR Speaker Saleh plays down relations with Russia during US visit, says there is no official treaty regarding Russian forces in Libya
Incident: On 9 October, during his visit to the US, HoR Speaker Aqeela Saleh commented on the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya in an interview with Alhurra TV. He hesitated to confirm their presence and emphasized that there is no official treaty with Russia regarding the presence of military forces in Libya. Saleh denied the presence of any Russian forces in the country with the official approval of the ‘authorities he represents’. Saleh added that the ongoing chaos in the country is the reason for the presence of several different foreign military formations as well as foreign intelligence, noting that military from other countries, including Turkey and Italy, is present in Libya.
Production hits 1.3 million bpd as NOC efforts to increase production and secure investment continue
Incident: On 13 October, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said Libyan production had reached 1.3 million bpd of crude oil and condensates, and 209,405 barrels of gas equivalent. This is higher than the average 1.25 million bpd Libya was producing prior to the various shutdowns in August and September. The NOC also stressed that ‘work is still ongoing to increase production levels’. On the same day, GNU PM Dabaiba publicly praised the efforts of workers who contributed to raising oil production rates. He stated that, ‘the rapid return of production to its required levels was accomplished by the efforts of national workers in all oil sites,’ headed by the NOC ‘and its supporting companies’. The NOC has announced a flurry of successful maintenance and development works in the last week, including bringing wells online.
For more...
The contents page for this week’s Libya-Analysis Weekly Report is set out below:
If you are interested in subscribing to our Weekly Report and would like to receive more information about the product, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
Spotlight on... Mediation and Dialogue Projects
We provide services aimed at designing, implementing and assisting mediation, dialogue and negotiation efforts in Libya. This includes dialogues at the international, national and tribal levels as well as conflict resolution efforts among armed groups. Our approach centres on a deep understanding of the stakeholders involved, based on our repository of knowledge and familiarity with local and international actors.
We have also just launched a weekly substack for our non-profit sister project the Libya Security Monitor (LSM) which you can access here.
For more information, please contact Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director, at Rhi@Libya-Analysis.com.
From our Blog..
On 11 October, S&P Global published a feature report titled ‘Libyan oil output poised for boom after end to political standoff’. The report looks at Libya’s crude oil production in the aftermath of the...read more
To read our other blog posts, click here.
About Libya-Analysis
Libya-Analysis® helps clients understand Libya. We are a boutique consultancy with years of experience producing nuanced, evidence-based research, analysis, and forecasting on Libya. Our strategic insights are used by multinational companies, international organisations, and democratic governments to make sense of the latest political, economic, commercial, and security developments in Libya.
HoR Speaker Saleh plays down relations with Russia during US visit, says there is no official treaty regarding Russian forces in Libya
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Libya-Analysis to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.