11 September 2024: Erdoğan and al-Sisi discuss Libya in historic meeting
This week we look at the Erdogan – Sisi meeting on Libya, as well as the arrest of al-Far over al-Bija's assassination and the fuel shortages and power cuts.
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Erdoğan and al-Sisi discuss Libya in historic meeting; Turkish Intel Chief visits Tripoli
Incident: On 4 September, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed the situation in Libya during al-Sisi's historic visit to Ankara, his first since taking office and the first of its kind in more than 12 years. Both emphasized the importance of simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections to resolve the long-standing crisis in Libya.
Al-Sisi insisted on the withdrawal of foreign troops and mercenaries from Libya and stressed the need to eliminate ‘armed militias’ to enable the country to overcome divisions and achieve security and stability. The two presidents agreed on the need to continue consultations between the two countries' institutions to achieve security and political stability in Libya.
On 5 September, the chief of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MİT) İbrahim Kalın and his deputy Jamal al-Din Çalık visited Tripoli. In Kalın’s meeting with Prime Minister Abdul Hameed Dabaiba, bilateral relations, the deepening of political and security cooperation, specific files of common interest and the situation in the Middle East, including the war in Gaza, were discussed. Key topics were the Turkish concerns about the current struggle for the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) leadership and the Turkish military presence in Libya, including in Khoms.
In Kalın’s meeting with Presidential Council Deputies Abdullah al-Lafi and Musa al-Koni (Menfi was abroad) current political developments in Libya were discussed, with a particular focus on the developments around the CBL. Kalın also met with representatives of the High State Council (HSC), some ministers and senior security and intelligence officials.
Comment: MIT (Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı) is Turkey's primary intelligence agency, responsible for gathering domestic and international intelligence on national security threats. It is under the direct authority of the President of Turkey.
Kalın stressed in his meetings the need to find a compromise on the future leadership of the CBL that finds broad acceptance. He stressed Ankara's commitment to Libya's unity and stability and expressed the hope that conflicts in Libya will be solved through consensual solutions in a national agreement. The two PC deputies stressed that the current situation requires the solidarity of all Libyans to reach a comprehensive political settlement. They underlined the importance of the international community, including Turkey, in supporting the political dialogue in Libya.
Both Turkey and Egypt have significant interests in Libya. Ensuring access to an expanded maritime area is key for Ankara. For Turkey’s argument about a common maritime border between Libya and Turkey to hold water (and thereby allow it to exploit hydrocarbon resources in the area), it is necessary that Libya remains united, as the strip of land considered by Turkey as the opposite coast in Libya is located in the far east of Libya. A break-up of Libya would be a serious problem for Turkey. In addition, Turkey has recently revived its relations with the eastern authorities and the Haftar family, securing many lucrative reconstruction contracts in the East.
Turkey also wants to protect its military presence in western Libya. On 12 August, Erdogan submitted to the Turkish parliament a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Turkey and the Government of National Unity (GNU) regarding the status of Turkish forces currently stationed in Libya. The memorandum was signed on 1 March in Antalya and builds upon previous understandings, including the Military Training Cooperation Memorandum signed in 2012 and the Security and Military Cooperation Memorandum signed in 2019.
For Cairo, it is crucial to prevent the east of Libya from becoming again a safe haven for terrorist groups operating in Egypt, let alone from falling into the hands of an Islamist government. Egypt has improved its relations with Dabaiba in recent years, but they suffered a setback in August after Egypt officially welcomed the Government of National Stability (GNS) Prime Minister Osama Hammad for an official visit as Libya’s PM, and Dabaiba expelled two Egyptian diplomats in return.
Significance: The Erdogan – Sisi meeting on Libya is significant given the major influence both countries have in Libya. Turkey has vital geopolitical (specifically maritime claims in the eastern Mediterranean) and economic interests in both eastern and western Libya, as well as a major military presence in western Libya. On the other side, while Egypt also has important economic interests throughout Libya, its vital security interests are about Cyrenaica. It is notable that their meeting referred to the need for ‘simultaneous’ presidential and parliamentary elections, backing the HoR/Egypt position that presidential elections must take place under the aegis of the HoR in order to ensure the eligibility criteria are such that Khalifa Haftar or one of his sons can stand as president.
Kalin’s visit to Tripoli was most likely focused on applying pressure to key actors – notably Dabaiba and the PC – in order to resolve the CBL crisis. Despite the rumours in Libya that Kalin’s main motivation was to sign an agreement securing Turkish military presence in Libya, this is unlikely as this is not the responsibility of the Turkish intelligence chief.
Although there are still differences, within the framework of an overall improvement of the relations between Cairo and Ankara, it seems to be that – for the time being – the interests of both countries might be pursued without harming each other. This could have a positive impact on the stabilization of Libya in the short term, for example by supporting the resolution of the CBL crisis (likely at the expense of the Dabaiba-backed board) and minimising the risk of large scale conflict between the LNA and western region forces (supported by Turkey). If a new government can be agreed which both Cairo and Ankara support (e.g. it protects both their interests as outlined above), it could also spell the end for Dabaiba’s government. However, it is also likely to see Turkey’s military presence in western Libya deepening, an increase in contracts being awarded in an opaque manner to Turkish and Egyptian companies, and efforts to undermine free and fair elections in order to protect the status quo.
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Al-Far arrested over involvement in al-Bija assassination, sparking renewed violence in Zawiyya
Incident: The Attorney General’s Office issued arrest warrants over the murder of the commander of the Libyan Naval Academy, Abdurrahman Milad aka al-Bija, on 1 September. On 4 September, the Attorney General said it had ordered an interrogation of a suspect who voluntarily surrendered himself and ordered the arrest of three persons suspected to be involved in the crime. These individuals are understood to be linked to Al-Far reportedly handed over these suspects voluntarily due to the pressures mounting against him.
Shortly thereafter, the Attorney General issued an arrest warrant addressed to the MoI against Muhammed al-Baroun aka al-Far, the commander of the 1st Support Force Zawiyya and deputy head of the Counter Security Threats Agency on charges of involvement in the assassination of al-Bija.
Fuel shortages continue resulting in power cuts, though Brega and NOC insist the supplies are there
Incident: Lengthy power cuts have affected much of western Libya this week due to a lack of fuel and gas to run power stations, while shortages of petrol and other fuels continue.
On 8 September, the General Electricity Company (GECOL) warned of a shortage in fuel supplies and requested an intervention by the Attorney General (AG) to ensure the continued provision of the quantities of natural gas and fuel needed to operate the production stations on the network. GECOL stressed that fuel shortages will inevitably lead to power cuts. The NOC insists there are no issues with supplies however.
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Al-Far arrested over involvement in al-Bija assassination, sparking renewed violence in Zawiyya
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